Aug 30 ,2024
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed mixed-to-lower and around the lowest levels of the session. Real Estate, Travel&Leisure and Construction&Mtls outperformed. Energy, Media and Technology lagged. Follows positive close on Thursday.
UK fiscal watchdog OBR made case for Chancellor Reeves to ramp up investment. The OBR talked up the benefits of investment on productivity and growth potential, though also highlighted that often there is delay between government announcements and the impact of its decisions.
On the macro front, Eurozone headline inflation eased in line with forecast, but services prices accelerated after easing in July. Softer-than-expected readings from Germany, France and Spain supported pricing for a near-term cut and saw pickup in rate cut pricing for Q4. Other macro data included a fall in Eurozone unemployment rate back to record low of 6.4% seen in April. In addition, downward revision to French Q2 GDP and rise in German unemployment. In the UK, BoE data showed decent increase in level of mortgage approvals, which fits in with increase in housing market activity. Lloyds business barometer unchanged at highest level since 2015. BRC data showed improvement in footfall in UK high street in August.
In a light corporate news flow, out of DACHs, EMS-Chemie Holding (EMSN.SW), EDAG Engineering Group (ED4.GR), Strabag SE (STR.AV), and Cie Financiere Tradition (CFT.SW) reported H1 earnings. In Nordics, Ambu (AMBU.N.DC), AF Gruppen (AFG.NO), and Elon AB (ELON.SS) issued Q2/Q3 earnings. In Benelux, Recticel (RECT.BB) and Sif Holding (SIFG.NA) reported H1 earnings with the latter confirming FY guidance. In the UK, Nanoco Group (NANO.LN), Globaltrans Investment (GLTR.LN) updated investors with their latest numbers.
In M&A, Ganz-Mavag Europe Zrt. withdraws take-over bid for 100% of Talgo (TLGO.SM). Brookfield (BAM) reportedly in discussions with sovereign funds to join takeover bid for Grifols (GRF.SM). ECIT AS and Olympus BidCo AS agree to extend date within which launch conditions for offer shall be fulfilled or waived by offeror until and including 6-Sep.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Real Estate +1.47%, Travel & Leisure +0.66%, Construct & Mtls +0.65%, Banks +0.56%, Utilities +0.56%, Health Care +0.42%, Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores +0.15%, Consumer Products and Services +0.10%
Underperformers:
Energy(0.87%), Media (0.78%), Technology (0.41%), Retail (0.25%), Basic Resources (0.19%), Financial Svcs (0.09%), Food, Beverage and Tobacco (0.02%), Insurance +0.01%, Chemicals (0.02%), Autos & Parts (0.01%), Ind Goods & Svcs +0.02%
Macro:
ECB:
ECB's Nagel urges caution on rate cuts despite inflation easing - Bloomberg
Germany:
UK:
UK fiscal watchdog makes case for public investment boost under new Chancellor - Bloomberg
Scotland's first minister to lead review at party conference while trying to shift focus on to Labour ahead of 2026 polls - FT
Smoking ban in pub gardens and outdoor venues being considered due to 'huge burden' on NHS, Starmer says - Sky
Reeves under growing pressure on winter fuel payments - BBC
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+14.4% ELON.SS (Elon AB SEK27.00, +3.40) -- earnings
+14.3% SYNACT.SS (SynAct Pharma SEK8.83, +1.11) -- first scientific publication showing treatment potential of a pro-resolving compound in human virus infection
+13.2% CLCO.NO (Cool Co. NOK130.00, +15.20) -- Pareto upgrade
+9.8% NLFSK.DC (Nilfisk Holding DKK132.20, +11.80) -- Nordea upgrade
+8.9% INTRUM.SS (Intrum SEK47.15, +3.86) -- recapitalization update
+8.3% RLF.SW (RELIEF THERAPEUTICS Holding CHF1.17, +0.09) -- earnings
+7.3% REMEDY.FH (Remedy Entertainment €18.24, +1.24) -- partnership
+6.8% RECT.BB (Recticel €12.50, +0.80) -- earnings
+6.3% HPUR.NO (Hexagon Purus NOK10.08, +0.60) -- order
+4.3% MILDEF.SS (MilDef Group NT$82.20, +3.40) -- raises long-term profitability target
+4.1% SPIE.FP (SPIE €36.60, +1.44) -- reinstated overweight at JPMorgan
+3.3% NOTE.SS (NOTE SEK135.00, +4.30) -- buyback
+3.1% ESUN.SW (Edisun Power Europe CHF67.50, +2.00) -- earnings
+2.2% NMAN.SS (Nederman Holding SEK213.50, +4.50) -- acquires Duroair Technologies Inc
+2.2% ELIS.FP (Elis €22.40, +0.48) -- reinstated overweight at JPMorgan
+2.2% ACA.FP (Credit Agricole €14.10, +0.30) -- HSBC upgrade
+2.0% CATE.SS (Catena SEK570.00, +11.00) -- short-term recommendation upgraded to buy from hold at Handelsbanken
+1.8% SAVE.SS (Nordnet SEK234.40, +4.20) -- CEO Lars-Åke Norling sells 250.0K shares
+1.7% NOVO.B.DC (Novo Nordisk DKK938.10, +15.90) -- data journal publication
+1.6% GRF.SM (Grifols €10.04, +0.16) -- Brookfield reportedly in discussions with sovereign funds to join takeover bid for Grifols - Bloomberg
+1.6% ATLA.DC (Atlantic Petroleum DKK2.55, +0.04) -- Q2 earnings
Notable Decliners
-33.8% NANO.LN (Nanoco Group £0.09, -0.05) -- commercial update
-18.7% INDI.LN (Indus Gas £0.10, -0.02) -- corporate and operational update
-18.5% ECNL.IM (Aquafil €2.35, -0.54) -- earnings; Kepler Cheuvreux downgrade
-16.4% AMBU.B.DC (Ambu DKK127.95, -25.10) -- confirms prelim Q3 earnings
-15.4% AVTX.NA (Avantium €1.88, -0.34) -- Oddo downgrade
-9.9% PNOR.NO (Petronor E&P NOK9.12, -1.00) -- earnings
-7.0% AIFORIA.FH (Aiforia Technologies €4.14, -0.31) -- Inderes downgrade
-4.2% PVL.FP (Plastiques du Val de Loire €1.70, -0.08) -- earnings
-3.9% BNOR.NO (BlueNord NOK478.50, -19.50) -- updates on Tyra Redevelopment Project and Tyra Production Guidance
-3.4% KDEV.SS (Karolinska Development SEK1.32, -0.05) -- earnings
-2.2% AFG.NO (AF Gruppen NOK124.60, -2.80) -- earnings
-2.0% TLT1V.FH (Teleste €2.46, -0.05) -- syndicate loan update
EU companies reporting Monday:
Earnings:
Benelux: Compagnie du Bois Sauvage (COMB.BB),
DACHs: Burkhalter (BRKN.SW), InnoTec TSS (TSS.GR)
France: Delta Plus (ALDLT.FP)
UK: JD Sports Fashion (JD.LN), Ashtead Technology (AT.LN)
Trading Update: Kainos (KNOS.LN)
Data:
Economics:
Aug Preliminary CPI:
Eurozone +2.2% y/y vs consensus +2.2% and prior +2.6%; +0.2% m/m vs consensus +0.2% and prior 0.0%
France +1.9% y/y vs consensus +1.8% and prior +2.3%; +0.6% m/m vs consensus +0.5% and prior +0.2%
Italy +1.1% y/y vs consensus +1.2% and prior +1.3%; +0.2% m/m vs consensus +0.3% and prior +0.4%
Jul Unemployment Rate:
Denmark 2.6% vs consensus 2.5% and prior 2.5%
Italy 6.5% vs consensus 7% and prior revised 6.9% from 7%
Eurozone +6.4%% vs consensus 6.5% and prior 6.5%
Jul Retail Sales:
Denmark +3.9% y/y vs consensus +2.9% and prior +0.8%
Spain +1% y/y vs consensus +0.5% and prior +0.3%
France:
Q2 Final GDP +1.0% y/y vs preliminary +1.1%; +0.2% q/q vs preliminary +0.3%
Jul Consumer Goods Spending +0.3% m/m vs +0.4% and prior revised to (0.6%) from (0.5%)
Jul PPI (5.4%) y/y vs consensus (5.5%) and prior revised (5.9%) from (6.0%)
UK:
Aug Nationwide House Prices +2.4% y/y vs consensus +2.9% and prior +2.1%
Jul Mortgage Approvals 61.99K vs consensus 61.00K and prior revised 60.61K from 59.98K
Jul M4 Money Supply +0.3% m/m vs consensus +0.5% and prior +0.5%
Germany:
Aug Unemployment Rate 6.0% vs consensus 6.0% and prior 6.0%
Aug Unemployment 2K vs consensus 16K and prior 18K
Switzerland Aug KOF Leading Indicators 101.6 vs consensus 100.6 and prior revised 100.6 from 101.0
Markets:
WTI Crude (Oct 24): ($2.18) or (2.87%) to $73.73
€-$ (0.0022) or (0.20%) to 1.1058
£-$ (0.0036) or (0.28%) to 1.3131
€-£ +0.0007 to 0.8421
S&P 500 +0.07%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +8.21%
DAX: +12.87%
CAC: +1.22%
MIB: +13.21%
Stoxx 600: +9.60%
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