Aug 26 ,2024
Synopsis
European equity markets indicated to open slightly lower. Note that UK is closed for the Summer bank holiday.
Focus on Middle East and geopolitical situation after Hezbollah launches hundreds of missiles at northern Israel; attack follows assassination of Hezbollah commander in Beirut. Israel said pre-emptive strikes in Lebanon stopped bigger attack. Hezbollah says attack has been completed, denies plans thwarted by Israeli strikes. The US says it is working to avoid any further escalation. (Reuters, BBC). Oil prices currently higher.
Recall that last week European equity markets ended higher with central bank rate cut expectations boosting sentiment. Fed rate cut pricing was underpinned by dovish comments by Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole and ECB officials also talked up the prospect of a September rate cut. Against this backdrop, Eurozone bond yields fell, and the dollar weakened. Positive UK macro data kept Gilt yields underpinned and sterling also traded at its highest level versus the dollar in two years.
Asian equities mixed Monday. Hang Seng outperforming amid strength in property developers. Mainland China equities mixed. Nikkei lagging amid yen strength.
Macro data releases out today include Germany Aug Ifo survey, Finland Jul PPI, Norway Jul unemployment rate, Spain Jul PPI
Among stocks in focus this morning: Bakkafrost (BAKKA.NO) reported weaker than expected Q2 earnings; Investor group reportedly exploring acquisition of Vivendi's stake in Telecom Italia (TIT.IM); Siemens Healthineers (SHL.GR) to acquire Advanced Accelerator Applications from Novartis for €200M, reports FT; UCB (UCB.BB) to sell mature business in China to CBC Group, Mubadala for $680M
Today's agenda also sees EU's Vestager delivering a keynote speech and Q&A at the Danish Ambassadors' meeting Forum whilst EU's Simson participates in the ONS 2024 conf. Chancellor Scholz gives press statement in the afternoon following visit to Evonik Industries plant at the chemical park in Marl. France's President Macron due to meet with the leaders of the far-right National Rally, Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, along with Eric Ciotti, who heads a group of Republicans who split from the rest of the party before the election. Top candidates in Thuringian state election (being held on 1-Sep, along with Saxony state election) from the LEFT, SPD, GREENS, AfD, CDU and FDP as well as BSW answer questions in tv debate on ARD at 20:15CET. In central banks, Riksbank publishes minutes of last monetary policy meeting at 9:30CET
The week ahead sees Central Bank Research Assn (CEBRA) annual meeting, Aug preliminary CPIs and Q2 final GDP's from across the region as well as earnings/updates from the likes of ageas (AGS.BB), Bunzl (BNZL.LN), Delivery Hero (DHER.GR), Eiffage (FGR.FP), Elekta (EKTA.B.SS), Pernod Ricard (RI.FP) and Prudential (PRU.LN). In the US, sentiment likely to be influenced by NVDA earnings on Wednesday.
Politics/Macro/World News
Top company news
Earnings/updates
MBTN.SW (Meyer Burger Technology) -- to focus on module production in Arizona; initiates comprehensive restructuring measures
BAKKA.NO (Bakkafrost) -- reports Q2 EBIT DKK388M vs FactSet DKK542.3M [10 est, DKK393-630.7M]
LLBN.SW (Liechtensteinische Landesbank) -- reports H1 net income CHF90.2M, +2% vs year-ago CHF88.7M; reaffirms FY guidance
Also reporting today
Earnings: Molecular Partners (MOLN.SW), NNIT (NNIT.DC), Luxor (LUXOR.B.DC), Awardit (AWRD.SS), AlzeCure Pharma (ALZCUR.SS)
Trading Update: Freelance.com (ALFRE.FP)
M&A
TIT.IM (Telecom Italia) -- Investor group exploring acquisition of Vivendi's stake in Telecom Italia - Corriere della Sera
SHL.GR (Siemens Healthineers) -- to acquire Advanced Accelerator Applications from Novartis for €200M - FT
NETW.LN (Network International Holdings) -- BCP VI Neptune Bidco (Brookfield) announces remaining regulatory conditions in respect of acquisition of Network International Holdings have now been satisfied
EBOX.LN (Tritax EuroBox) -- Brookfield's PUSU deadline in respect of possible offer for Tritax EuroBox extended to 23-Sep
ULVR.LN (Unilever) -- puts skincare brands Kate Somerville and REN up for sale - Sky News
UCB.BB (UCB) -- to sell mature business in China to CBC Group, Mubadala for $680M (€608.1M)
IDS.LN (International Distribution Services) -- EP Corporate Group completes the second stage of the syndication of the debt financing in connection with the acquisition of International Distribution Services
Carlyle, Blackstone, CVC, Bridgepoint and Permira among private equity firms considering offers for stake in Grant Thornton UK, expected to be valued at up to £1.5B ($1.98B) - FT
Healthcare
LLY (Eli Lilly) -- NICE to "definitely" reject Lilly's donanemab - Telegraph
GLPG.NA (Galapagos) -- holder EcoR1 Capital changes filing type from 13G (passive) to 13D (active); discloses 9.9% stake - 13D
HNSA.SS (Hansa Biopharma) -- announces departure of Chief Commercial Officer Matthew Shaulis
Other
ERF.FP (Eurofins Scientific) -- announces availability of real-time PCR assay for identification of Monkeypox virus
ACS.SM (ACS SA) -- provides update on SH-288 highway concession contract; Texas Transportation Commission suspends new agreement negotiations, continues with process of early termination
FRAS.LN (Frasers Group) -- At AGM, Frasers to seek authority to buy back 15% of shares from Mike Ashley
Burberry, EasyJet, Frasers may be dropped from FTSE 100 - London Times
Energy Resources of Australia will deplete its cash resources by end of 2024 or early 2025, looking to raise a minimum of A$210M
Estimated weekend box office revenues in US, Canada $88.0M, (3.2%) y/y - Box Office Mojo
Key rating changes
Upgrades
CAST.SS (Castellum AB) -- to buy from hold at DnB Markets
SAGA.B.SS (Sagax) -- to buy from hold at SEB
LOTB.BB (Lotus Bakeries) -- to hold from reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux
HUSCO.DC (HusCompagniet) -- to buy from hold at Nordea
Downgrades
INSTAL.SS (Instalco) -- to hold from buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
SENS.SW (Sensirion Holding) -- to hold from buy at Stifel
Data
Nikkei (0.85%) to 38038.59
Hang Seng +0.78% to 17750.22
Shanghai Composite (0.27%) to 2846.75
S&P futures (1.3) vs prior close of 5652.5
€-$ (0.0013) or (0.12%) to 1.1180
$-¥ (0.09) or (0.06%) to 144.15
€-¥ (0.31) or (0.19%) to 161.13
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