Aug 20 ,2024
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed lower with pan-European indices gradually reversing earlier gains, ended around session lowest levels. Italy +0.3% and Switzerland just flirting with positive territory, led the outperformers. Norway (1.4%) was the outlier in the downside.
In political developments, commentary surrounding the German traffic light coalition has become increasingly negative amid recent clashes over budget and opinions polls pointing to a marked drop in support. With a federal election due in September 2025, there are thoughts policy implementation likely to be limited as party leaders look ahead to future electoral prospects The Handelsblatt said the traffic light coalition has exhausted its common ground. Highlighted doubts over ability to implement the projects it has already agreed upon or whether there would be a premature breakup and early election.
Focus also on European real estate, as the sector may be approaching a recovery phase, according to recent UBS analysis. After a prolonged period of high interest rates dampening property investments, UBS analysts suggest the recession for REITs could be ending. They predict that a 25 bps reduction in long-term interest rates could boost portfolio values by 5% and net asset values by 8.2% for European real estate companies. This optimism is however tempered by data from Germany's VDP banking association, which shows a mixed picture (Reuters).
In central banks updates, the Swedish Riksbank announced a widely anticipated 25 bps cut to its policy rate, bringing it down to 3.5% (Bloomberg). More significantly, the central bank signaled a faster pace of monetary easing than previously indicated. The Riksbank now suggests the possibility of two to three additional rate cuts before year-end, an increase from its June projection and aligning more closely with current market expectations. This shift in stance reflects growing confidence in the inflation outlook and acknowledgment of Sweden's economic challenges.
Elsewhere, recent Swiss watch export data for July 2024 showed a modest return to positive growth, with exports increasing by 1.6% y/y. However, analysts suggest uptick should be viewed cautiously, as it may be largely attributed to two additional working days in July 2024 compared to the previous year. Year-to-date, exports remain 2.4% below 2023 levels, indicating persistent challenges in the industry.
In corporate news, DocMorris (DOCM.SW) released mixed update at half year with lowered FY guidance. Also in the DACH region, HUBER+SUHNER (HUBN.SW) reported H1 earnings and reaffirmed its FY guidance. SP Swiss Property (PSPN.SW) and Flughafen Wien (FLU.AV) also updated investors with their latest numbers.
In the UK, Antofagasta (ANTO.LN) reported H1 underlying EPS $0.22 vs FactSet $0.20 and cut interim divi by ~33%. John Wood Group (WG.LN) H1 EPS $0.025 ex-items vs FactSet ($0.01) [1 est] and reaffirms 2024 and 2025 outlook.
In Denmark, Coloplast (COLO.B.DC) reported Q3 mixed earnings and confirmed its guidance for 2024. H. Lundbeck (HLUN.B.DC) said it now expects FY24 Revenue Growth (CER) of 11-14% vs prior guidance for 7-10%, Adj EBITDA Growth (CER) of 15-20% vs prior guidance of 10-16%. Jyske Bank (JYSK.DC) released Q2 net income DKK1.34B ahead of FactSet DKK1.20B.
On the speculation front, HSBC (HSBA.LN) reportedly mulls sale of South Africa business, according to Bloomberg.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers
Autos & Parts +0.08%, Insurance +0.02%, Construct & Mtls (0.07%), Persnl & HHold Goods (0.13%), Financial Svcs (0.13%), Health Care (0.14%), Technology (0.15%), Real Estate(0.17%), Travel & Leisure (0.19%), Media (0.21%), Retail (0.21%), Chemicals (0.27%), Utilities (0.37%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.41%), Basic Resources (0.42%)
Underperformers
Oil & Gas (2.10%), Banks (1.25%), Food & Beverage (1.01%), Telecom (0.84%)
Macro/Peripheral markets:
EU
Brussels edges closer to slapping definitive tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles - Euronews
Geopolitics
UK
UK economy shows surprising strength amid global uncertainty - Bloomberg
Ministers launch pension credit campaign after restricting winter fuel payments - The Guardian
UK government give go ahead to London City airport expansion - release
Fresh talks to be held over rail pay, as PM visits Wales - Sky
Ireland
Credit Union Quarterly results show sustained lending and mortgage growth - release
Germany
Switzerland
Is getting squeezed between China and the US - Bloomberg
Finland
Releases action plan to promote offshore wind power - release
Norway
Norwegian health service has good preparedness and will be able to handle mpox infection in Norway - release
Greece
Hope for contrite tax dodgers - ekathimerini
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+12.8% HUBN.SW (HUBER+SUHNER CHF83.70, +9.50) -- H1 earnings
+10.5% IVACC.SS (Intervacc SEK3.80, +0.36) -- announces European experts on equine strangles publish guidelines regarding vaccination with Strangvac
+3.3% NOG.LN (Nostrum Oil & Gas £0.05, -0.00) -- H1 earnings
+2.2% LEMON.FH (Lemonsoft €6.95, +0.15) -- Chief Delivery Office Riku Åkerblom will leave his role and position in Lemonsoft's management team on 20-Aug
+1.8% ENSU-OSL (1.35, +0.02) -- H1 earnings
+1.5% VSSAB.B.SS (Viking Supply Ships SEK102.00, +1.50) -- Q3 earnings
+1.4% BAHN.B.SS (Bahnhof SEK51.40, +0.70) -- H1 earnings
Notable Decliners
-21.4% GENO.SS (Genovis SEK24.20, -6.60) -- Q2 earnings; divestment of antibody business to Leinco technologies
-20.7% RENX.LN (Renalytix £0.12, -0.03) -- does not believe realistic prospect of an offer in the near term from unsolicited approach announced in March; company is no longer in an Offer Period
-18.2% VLTSA.FP (Voltalia €8.70, -1.94) -- production curtailment imposed by Brazilian grid operator
-16.7% ZOO.LN (Zoo Digital Group £0.53, -0.11) -- FY earnings
-12.4% DOCM.SW (DocMorris CHF41.84, -5.94) -- H1 earnings
-10.2% STAR.B.SS (Starbreeze SEK0.28, -0.03) -- Q2 earnings
-9.4% CGS.LN (Castings £3.08, -0.32) -- AGM trading update
-7.4% SALM.NO (Salmar NOK591.00, -47.50) -- Q2 earnings
-7.0% BICO.SS (BICO Group SEK40.30, -3.02) -- Q2 earnings
-7.0% BIJ.GR (Bijou Brigitte modische Accessoires €31.80, -2.40) -- prelim H1 earnings
-6.7% HAT.LN (H&T Group £3.90, -0.28) -- H1 earnings; initiated buy at Canaccord Genuity
-5.0% COLO.B.DC (Coloplast DKK887.80, -46.60) -- Q3 earnings
-4.1% ANX.LN (Anexo Group £0.61, -0.03) -- H1 earnings
-3.7% JM.SS (JM SEK202.60, -7.80) -- 145 potential lay-offs
-3.4% TRB.LN (Tribal Group £0.56, -0.02) -- H1 earnings
-2.5% RDC.GR (Redcare Pharmacy €132.60, -3.40) -- DocMorris sympathy
-2.5% LATO.B.SS (Latour Investment SEK292.80, -7.60) -- Q2 eanrings
-2.4% UHR.SW (Swatch Group CHF178.60, -4.45) -- Jul Swiss Watch Exports
-2.2% GMAB.DC (Genmab DKK1,820.50, -41.50) -- TEPKINLY (epcoritamab) receives second European Commission approval for the treatment of adults with relapsed/refractory follicular lymphoma; JPMorgan downgrade
-1.9% HSBA.LN (HSBC Holdings £6.51, -0.13) -- HSBC Holdings mulls sale of branch and securities businesses in South Africa - Bloomberg
-1.9% SLP.LN (Sylvania Platinum £0.56, -0.01) -- issues exploration update for Northern Limb Projects
-1.4% NDX1.GR (Nordex €13.65, -0.19) -- order
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: ASR Nederland (ASRNL.NA), Avantium (AVTX.NA), Kendrion (KENDR.NA), Tessenderlo (TESB.BB)
DACHs: BKW (BKW.SW), SoftwareONE (SWON.SW), Sensirion (SENS.SW), Implenia (IMPN.SW), ORIOR (ORON.SW), Feintool International (FTON.SW), Kapsch TrafficCom (KTCG.AV)
Nordics: Mowi (MOWI.NO), Lerøy Seafood (LSG.NO), Austevoll Seafood (AUSS.NO), DOF Group (DOFG.NO), Odfjell Drilling (ODL.NO), Multiconsult (MULTI.NO), Nykode Therapeutics (NYKD.NO), Cloudberry Clean Energy (CLOUD.NO), Cambi (CAMBI.NO), AMSC (AMSC.NO), Arctic Fish (AFISH.NO), Awilco LNG (ALNG.NO), H. Lundbeck (HLUN.B.DC), Sydbank (SYDB.DC), cBrain (CBRAIN.DC), TCM Group (TCM.DC), Better Collective (BETCO.SS), Karnov (KAR.SS), Smart Eye (SEYE.SS), Catella (CAT.B.SS), Implantica (IMP.A.SS), Paxman (PAX.SS)
UK: Mobico (MCG.LN), Costain (COST.LN)
Data:
Economics:
Finland Jul Unemployment Rate 7.9% vs consensus 7.6% and prior 8.3%
Denmark Q2 Preliminary GDP +0.6% q/q vs consensus +1.0% and prior revised (1.0%) from (1.4%)
Germany Jul PPI (0.8%) y/y vs consensus (0.8%) and prior (1.6%)
Switzerland Jul Trade Balance CHF4.89B vs consensus CHF5.4B and prior revised CHF6.12B from CHF6.18B
Jul Swiss Watch Exports +1.6% to CHF 2.24B
Eurozone
Jul Final CPI +2.6% y/y vs preliminary +2.6%
Jun Construction Output +1.0% y/y vs consensus (1.0%) and prior revised (2.1%) from (2.4%)
Markets:
WTI Crude (Sep 24): ($0.55) or (0.74%) to $73.82
€-$ +0.0018 or +0.16% to 1.1103
£-$ +0.0026 or +0.20% to 1.3017
€-£ (0.0001) to 0.8531
S&P 500 (0.25%)
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +6.98%
DAX: +9.57%
CAC: (0.79%)
MIB: +8.96% Stoxx 600: +6.93%
This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
Please refer to "Terms Of Use".
DEPOSITARY RECEIPTS:
NOT FDIC, STATE OR FEDERAL AGENCY INSURED
MAY LOSE VALUE
NO BANK, STATE OR FEDERAL AGENCY GUARANTEE