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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +1.80%, Hang Seng (0.33%), Shanghai Composite (0.93%) as of 04:10 ET

Aug 20 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities finished mostly higher Tuesday, ex Greater China. Markets led by Nikkei that gapped higher and comfortably outperformed the Topix. Strong gains in South Korea, Taiwan finished a few points higher. Australia up for the eighth consecutive session. India and Southeast Asia boards higher. Greater China benchmarks all lower led by Shenzhen but losses were across the board, Hong Kong led lower by oil & gas stocks. US futures nudging higher, Europe opening with more measured gains. US dollar flat, some weakness in the yuan just as sustainability of recent strength questioned; yen stronger late on. Treasuries and JGBs mixed, CGB yields lower. Crude futures down, precious metals higher, industrial metals under pressure.

    • Asia markets continued the positive momentum on Wall Street overnight with most boards ending higher. Sentiment solidly positive for the meantime although lack of follow through from opening gains indicate a degree of caution ahead of Fed Chair Powell's speech on Friday as Fed Fund Futures show a 78% chance of a 25 bps rate cut next month. Few regional developments of note to change the overarching narrative in markets today as generally constructive economic developments in the region drive equities higher, countered by weakness in China and Chinese stocks.

    • Today, China left 1Y and 5Y loan prime rates unchanged as expected as economists starting to give more attention to 7D rates and banks' RRR in search of the next monetary easing move. RBA minutes showed board weighed hiking rates this month amid inflation risks. South Korea's financial regulators moved to cool house prices in Seoul, just days ahead of the BOK's decision on rates with most analysts expecting an unchanged decision.

    • Kaisa Group (1638.HK) said it had secured an agreement with its bondholders to restructure its offshore debt. Nongshim (004370.KS) confirmed it is reviewing several funding methods but added no decisions have been made, follows media reports of a potential KRW160B convertible bond issuance. SK Inc (034730.KS) is considering selling its SK Specialty unit to a consortium of private equity firms, according to local press reports. CTBC Financial Holding (2891.TT) is considering a counter offer for Shin Kong (2888.TT), potentially outbidding an reported offer from Taishin Financial (2887.TT).

  • Digest:

    • China LPRs unchanged as expected:

      • LPRs were left steady at 3.35% in 1-year and 3.85% in 5-year, matching unanimous expectations (Reuters). Forecasts for a pause mainly attributed to recent rate cuts implemented in July while banking sector NIM compression remains a hurdle, having logged a record-low 1.54% at March-end. FX factor was not mentioned with yuan well off YTD lows. Article noted ongoing discussions surrounding the apparent transition towards the PBOC's designation of the seven-day reverse repo rate as the primary policy target. Recall that Governor Pan said in a weekend media interview the central bank will orchestrate a gradual shift away from quantitative targets, place greater emphasis on the use of price-based tools such as interest rates and enrich its monetary policy toolkit, albeit there were no specifics. Economists starting to adjust to the new direction with forecasts for the 7d rate though bulk of attention remains on MLF/LPR rates for the time being. Direction unanimously continues to point to further moderate easing. This alone is widely viewed as insufficient to stimulate a pickup in economic growth momentum. More of the attention has been on hopes for fiscal policy stimulus this year, particularly after the pro-growth message conveyed at the July Politburo meeting.

    • RBA flags keeping cash rate unchanged for longer than markets anticipate:

      • August RBA minutes showed board weighed hiking by 25 bp or keeping rates on hold, noting there was a case for tightening if members judged there was a material increase in risk inflation will not return to target by late 2025. Noted aggregate demand exceeding supply by more than assessed with board upgrading GDP growth estimates amid expectations of a consumption recovery and still-strong employment. Easing of financial conditions also argued for tighter policy amid pickup in credit growth and fall in market-implied expectations of rate path. However, saw case for hold decision if members judged inflation still broadly on track to return to target within reasonable timeframe. Added that case for hold also supported by need to balance inflation risks with outlook for full employment. Even then, RBA noted rate cut unlikely in short term with board vigilant to upside inflation risks. Added that holding cash rate unchanged for longer than markets anticipate (futures currently pricing in rate cut by year-end) may be sufficient to return inflation to target in a reasonable timeframe. However, board will need to reassess this possibility in future meetings.

    • China approves 2024 negative list, vows services development, greenlights five nuclear power projects:

      • Xinhua cited an executive meeting of the State Council Monday, which approved several policy proposals. Members signed off on the 2024 edition of the negative list for foreign investment, completely lifting entry barriers in the manufacturing sector, while accelerating the opening up of sectors such as telecommunication, education and health care services. Also endorsed a set of guidelines on promoting the high-quality development of services trade through high-level opening up. Highlighted the importance of efforts to create new services trade growth drivers, and to support the international development in areas such as finance, consultation, design and certification. Members discussed measures with a focus on strengthening policy coordination in order to foster innovative SMEs. Little elaboration on the approval of five nuclear power projects, only stressing the need to strengthen safety regulations. Recall the prioritization of services development dovetails with an earlier plenary State Council session calling for more work to expand domestic demand with a focus on consumption, particularly in services.

    • Yuan's recent strength faces uncertain prospects:

      • PBOC set yuan's midpoint rate at 7.1325 per dollar Tuesday, 90 pips firmer than prior day and slightly weaker than estimate of 7.1317. Came after onshore yuan logged sharpest gain in two weeks on Monday, gaining nearly 300 pips from Friday and logging MTD gain of 1.2%. Offshore yuan also gained more than 1.1% against dollar in August so far and hit 7.08 level during intraday trading on 5-Aug, highest since December. Yuan's strength rode a wave of broad dollar selling as investors bet on Fed rate cuts. Bloomberg noted its dollar index extended falling streak to hit five-month low and options traders brace for further losses on bets that Chair Powell will reinforce case for rate cuts at Jackson Hole. Caixin added falling yield spread between US-China to around 170 bp from 270 bp in October 2023 has lessened some depreciation pressure on yuan. But Chinese currency is still grappling with weak economic fundamentals. Expectations of additional monetary easing likely to dent investor confidence in Chinese assets and reduce demand for yuan, which also could face renewed pressure if more economic and trade frictions arise between Washington and Beijing.

    • China urged to do more on policy front:

      • Another round of weak China macro data has reinforced calls for authorities to step up policy support. Some economists expect additional rate cuts over coming months to help revive credit growth and loosen financial conditions. China Premier Li recently pledged efforts to stimulate consumption (Reuters) while state media revived talk of consumption vouchers (Reuters). However, China policy support measures often met with disappointment with economic momentum continuing to wane following their announcement, prompting some discussion about implementation constraints and formulating more effective policy mix. Goldman Sachs argued for lowering mortgage rates further to help ease household cash flow pressures, accompanied by fiscal measures to mitigate impact on bank net interest margins. Said LGSB could be repurposed from new infrastructure investment to a debt swaps as a way to assist local governments in reducing their interest burden. Also called for much cheaper funding to be provided to banks so they can extend more attractive loan terms to SOEs to assist them in purchasing vacant properties and facilitating housing destocking.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +8.7% 4385.JP (Mercari): Activist Oasis reportedly owns 3.96% stake in Mercari

      • +6.5% 1638.HK (Kaisa Group Holdings): enters into restructuring support agreement with AHG

      • +4.1% 1368.HK (Xtep International Holdings): reports H1 revenue CNY7.20B vs StreetAccount CNY7.11B

      • +4.0% 603799.CH (Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt): reports H1 net income attributable CNY1.67B vs guidance CNY1.50-1.80B

      • +2.9% 603501.CH (Will Semiconductor Co Ltd Shanghai): reports H1 net income attributable CNY1.37B vs guidance CNY1.31-1.41B

      • +1.6% 4568.JP (Daiichi Sankyo): ENHERTU granted breakthrough therapy designation in U.S for certain patients with HER2 low or HER2 Ultralow metastatic breast cancer

      • +1.1% 004370.KS (Nongshim): following reports of potential KRW160B convertible bond issuance company confirms reviewing various funding methods, but notes no decisions have been made

      • +1.1% 000333.CH (Midea Group): reports H1 net income attributable CNY20.80B, +14% vs year-ago CNY18.23B

      • +0.4% 034730.KS (SK): reportedly looks to sell SK specialty; deal may exceed KRW4.5T

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -13.6% 3668.HK (Yancoal Australia): reports H1 NPAT A$420M vs year-ago A$973M

      • -6.1% 6969.HK (Smoore International Holdings): reports H1 net income CNY683.2M, (5%) vs year-ago CNY717.3M

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • New Zealand July

        • Trade balance (NZ$963M) vs revised NZ$585M in June

          • Exports +14,0% y/y vs +2.9% in June

          • Imports +8.5% y/y vs +0.6% in June

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 674.30 or +1.80% to 38062.92

      • Hang Seng: (58.49) or (0.33%) to 17511.08

      • Shanghai Composite: (27.01) or (0.93%) to 2866.66

      • Shenzhen Composite: (21.77) or (1.41%) to 1525.68

      • ASX200: 17.30 or +0.22% to 7997.70

      • KOSPI: 22.27 or +0.83% to 2696.63

      • SENSEX: 450.94 or +0.56% to 80875.62

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: (0.13) or (0.09%) to 146.4710

      • $-KRW: (4.91) or (0.37%) to 1328.8000

      • A$-$: (0.00) or (0.05%) to 0.6728

      • $-INR: (0.08) or (0.10%) to 83.7532

      • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 7.1354

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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