Aug 19 ,2024
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed higher. Portugal and Finland +1.0% lead outperformers, whilst Denmark and Greece slightly higher (0.02% and 0.03%, respectively) lead underperformers.
Quiet as market waits for Powell on Friday and NVDA earnings next week. Path of least resistance has been higher over the last week or so (S&P up nearly 7% in just the last 7 days) on the back of renewed support for the soft-landing narrative, disinflation traction and much cleaner positioning following NFP/BoJ drawdown. Vol retreat, corporate buybacks, passive inflows, dovish Fedspeak, spread tightening and big M&A some of the other tailwinds for risk sentiment.
Latest geopolitical developments see Ukraine consolidate position in Kursk. Reports circulated on weekend that Ukraine's Kursk attack derailed indirect talks with Kyiv on halting strikes on energy and power targets, which was denied by Russia. Elsewhere, Germany will reject new aid requests from Ukraine due to cuts in spending. Coalition government reached 2025 budget deal late Friday.
Quiet start to the the week for European macro developments. UK property portal Rightmove said property buyers returning to market after BoE rate cut. Similarly, some upbeat commentary on UK commercial real estate, which is showing signs of recovery. Data from Adzuna shows UK job vacancies have increased for the first time this year as economic activity picks up.
On the corporate front, light in earnings releases; out of the UK, Plus500 (PLUS.LN) reported final H1 and expects annual revenue and core profit to be above consensus. Out of DACHs, Branicks Group (BRNK.GR) reported prelim H1 and announced bridge financing reduced by a further €80M and targets full repayment by end of year. Gurit Holding (GURN.SW) also released H1 and now expects FY revenue at lower end of CHF435-485M.
In M&A, Ericsson (ERIC.B.SS) announces sale of iconectiv to Koch Equity Development for ~SEK 10.6B ($1.0B). Porsche AG (P911.GR) and Varta AG (VAR1.GR) are planning a comprehensive deepening of their existing strategic partnership. In this context, it is planned that Porsche will acquire a majority stake in V4Drive Battery GmbH via a capital increase mainly through a contribution in kind. Dagens Industri reported Metso was working on a merger with Sandvik's (SAND.SS) long-standing mining equipment business; company issued a statement commenting on the rumors and said it had no information related to the speculations and no related insider project exists. Sky News reports CVC Capital Partners (CVC.NA) is among buyout firms preparing to submit bids for controlling stake in Grant Thornton UK.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's calendar (see - Europe Week Ahead: 19-Aug to 23-Aug attached) Antofagasta (ANTO.LN), John Wood Group (WG.LN), Coloplast (COLO.B.DC), Jyske Bank (JYSK.DC), PSP Swiss Property (PSPN.SW), HUBER+SUHNER (HUBN.SW) will be among other names to update investors, whilst the macro-calendar releases will include Germany Jul PPI, Switzerland Jul trade balance (and month watch export data), Finland Jul unemployment rate, Denmark Q2 preliminary GDP, Eurozone Jul final CPI, Jun construction output, Austria Jul final CPI.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Basic Resources +1.98%, Retail +1.56%, Consumer Products and Services +1.51%, Autos & Parts +1.25%, Real Estate +1.20%, Construct & Mtls +1.08%, Banks +0.94%, Utilities +0.87%, Financial Svcs +0.75%, Telecom +0.69%,
Underperformers:
Technology +0.17%, Food, Beverage and Tobacco +0.22%, Health Care +0.23%, Travel & Leisure +0.32%, Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores +0.32%, Chemicals +0.39%, Media +0.45%, Insurance +0.54%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.58%,
Macro/Peripheral markets:
Geopolitics
German finance minister under fire for Ukraine aid veto - FT
UK support for Ukraine remains unwavering, says PM Starmer's spokesperson - Reuters
Netanyahu's office says meeting with Blinken was 'positive' - The Guardian
Iran-Backed Militant Groups Claim Suicide Operation in Tel Aviv - Bloomberg
EU
European Bond Sales Start to Pick Up as Summer Slowdown Ends - Bloomberg
UK
Energy bills to surge by £150 as Reeves prepares to scrap winter fuel payments - The Telegraph, BBC
Germany
German industry's order backlog continues to decline - Handelsblatt
German industrial orders fall amid sluggish foreign trade - DW
Switzerland
SNB Cuts Limit for Banks to Get Full Interest on Parked Cash - Bloomberg
Greece
Hint of future debts can spur tax officials to action - ekathimerini
Unemployment at 15-year low - ekathimerini
Company news:
Trading Higher:
+15.4% HUM.LN (Hummingbird Resources £0.08, +0.01) -- secures new refinancing package
+10.4% IGP.LN (Intercede Group £1.89, +0.18) -- agreement with Microsoft
+7.2% HYL.BB (Hyloris Pharmaceuticals €6.96, +0.46) -- secures a development partner for HY-095
+6.9% DXRX.LN (Diaceutics £1.33, +0.09) -- promotional partnership worth up to £4.3M over first 18 months and launches PMx
+5.6% FFARM.NA (ForFarmers €3.01, +0.16) -- Kepler Cheuvreux upgrade
+4.9% GURN.SW (Gurit Holding CHF42.90, +2.00) -- H1 earnings
+4.6% PLUS.LN (Plus500 £25.38, +1.12) -- H1 earnings
+4.5% RDW.LN (Redrow £7.95, +0.35) -- Barratt Developments intends to complete the acquisition of Redrow later this week
+3.4% METSO.FH (Metso Corp. €9.34, +0.31) -- has no information related to the speculation of merger with Sandvik's mining equipment business and no related insider project exists
+3.2% NIBE.B.SS (NIBE Industrier SEK49.49, +1.54) -- ABG Sundal Collier and Inderes upgrade
+2.9% WWI.NO (Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding NOK404.00, +11.50) -- launches a tender offer to purchase up to 875,000 shares in the company
+2.5% MT.NA (ArcelorMittal €20.73, +0.51) -- Barclays upgrade
+2.3% LHN.SW (Holcim CHF79.44, +1.82) -- Deutsche Bank upgrade
+2.2% SAND.SS (Sandvik SEK212.60, +4.70) -- Metso Corp. exploring merger with Sandvik's mining equipment business - DI
+1.9% BIOT.SS (Biotage SEK195.40, +3.70) -- Dagens Industri out with buy recommendation
+1.9% VIT.B.SS (Vitec Software Group SEK543.00, +10.00) -- initiated buy at Pareto
+1.8% BSGR.NA (B&S Group €4.81, +0.09) -- H1 earnings
Trading Lower:
-45.7% VAR1.GR (VARTA €2.03, -1.77) -- VARTA reaches agreement with financial creditors and strategic investors on a restructuring plan; Porsche and Varta deepen strategic partnership
-6.0% DMRE.GR (DEMIRE Deutsche Mittelstand Real Estate €0.87, -0.06) -- receives backstop commitments totalling around €194M
-4.6% BAVA.DC (Bavarian Nordic A/S DKK270.60, -13.00) -- provides statement on Mpox vaccine supply and collaboration with African and global stakeholders
-3.6% BVC.LN (BATM Advanced Communications £0.20, -0.01) -- H1 earnings
-3.4% KARNEL.B.SS (Karnell Group SEK50.22, -1.74) -- SEB downgrade
-3.2% BWB.GR (Baader Bank €3.93, -0.13) -- extends cooperation agreement in place with its B2B partner sino AG for several year
-3.2% HSHP.NO (Himalaya Shipping NOK77.50, -2.60) -- DnB Markets downgrade
-2.7% IDEX.NO (IDEX Biometrics NOK0.77, -0.02) -- new CEO
-2.5% NEX.FP (Nexans €117.00, -3.00) -- Goldman Sachs downgrade
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
DACHs: PSP Swiss Property (PSPN.SW), HUBER+SUHNER (HUBN.SW), Medartis (MED.SW), DocMorris Ltd. (DOCM.SW), VP Bank (VPBN.SW), alstria office REIT (AOX.GR), SFC Energy (F3C.GR), Flughafen Wien (FLU.AV)
Nordics: Trifork (TRIFOR.DC), Investment AB Latour (LATO.B.SS), BICO Group (BICO.SS), Idun Industrier (IDUN.B.SS), Genovis (GENO.SS), Viking Supply Ships (VSSAB.B.SS), SalMar (SALM.NO), Odfjell (ODF.NO), Nordhealth (NORDH.NO), Gigante Salmon (GIGA.NO), Norcod (NCOD.NO), Next Biometrics (NEXT.NO), Anora (ANORA.FH), Taaleri (TAALA.FH),
UK: Antofagasta (ANTO.LN), John Wood Group (WG.LN), Tribal (TRB.LN), Anexo (ANX.LN)
Traffic: Aeroports de Paris ADP (ADP.FP), Flughafen Wien (FLU.AV)
Data:
Economics:
Spain Jun trade balance (€0.7B) vs consensus (€3.5B) and prior (€2.3B)
Markets:
WTI Crude (Sep 24): ($0.18) or (0.23%) to $76.47
€-$ +0.0037 or +0.33% to 1.1064
£-$ +0.0046 or +0.36% to 1.2985
€-£ (0.0000) to 0.8522
S&P 500 +0.43%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +8.07%
DAX: +9.97%
CAC: (0.55%)
MIB: +9.60%
Stoxx 600: +7.43%
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