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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei (1.77%), Hang Seng +0.80%, Shanghai Composite +0.49% as of 04:10 ET

Aug 19 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • Asia equities ended mixed from a largely positive morning. Among the markets to see gains were Hong Kong and most of mainland China, Australia, Taiwan and Southeast Asia; India trading flat. Others turned red over the day, including steep losses in Japan alongside a stronger yen, and in South Korea, whose won hit a five-month high. US futures point to a mildly weaker open, Europe flat in the first hour. US dollar notably lower, most major Asia currencies stronger. Treasury yields mixed, JGB yields higher, CGB yields dipped to one-week low. Crude pulling back further, precious metals supported, industrial metals mixed.

    • Asia markets saw a return to some volatility Monday. Japan's markets most affected as the Nikkei and Topix both traded to the upside for a time before they plunged steeply lower while the yen rose alongside JGB yields. No particular catalyst for the yen move per se, but came amid reports hedge funds had turned bullish on the yen for the first time in more than three years while a multi-trillion yen offer for Seven & I may also have contributed to yen buying.

    • Stronger regionwide currencies also came just as the dollar DXY index fell to more than seven-month lows and hover just above 102 on bearish Fedspeak over the weekend as well as speculation labor data may be revised lower. South Korea equities also faced a stronger won today, which climbed to a five-month high, while the ringgit and peso were also notable climbers as Asia currencies benefitted from increased economic optimism in the region. In other regional news, Japan's LDP will hold its leadership vote on 27-Sep; the country's machinery orders rose m/m in June but details were soft. Thailand's new PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra said she would pause the country's digital wallet stimulus program just as Q2 GDP growth came in better than expected. Malaysia's exports and imports both surged as its economy recovered further. Still ahead this week, central bank decisions from Thailand and Indonesia (Wednesday), and South Korea (Thursday).

    • Canadian group Alimentation Couch-Tard (ATD.CN) has made a non-binding proposal to acquire all the share of Seven & I (3382.JP); Seven & I stock up sharply. COSCO Shipping International (Singapore) (F83.SP) has proposed renounceable non-underwritten rights issue to raise S$373.2M. Adani Group says it has enough cash to cover more than 30 months of debt payments as it moved to reassure investors about its liquidity risk ahead of a fund-raising round for Adani Enterprises (512599.IN).

  • Digest:

    • Yen extends rally as market sensitivity to macro headlines persist:

      • Yen sharply higher Monday with USD/JPY trading in the 145 range compared with Friday's peak of 149.38. Tokyo session strength was initially thought to reflect stop-losses on the break of Friday's low, though press subsequently cited market talk that US payrolls will undergo sharp downward revisions (Nikkei). Friday's rally after Tokyo hours was mainly pinned on weaker than expected US housing market data (Nikkei), extending high sensitivity to macro headlines. Separately, Nikkei cited latest CFTC data published Friday showing speculator positions as of 13-Aug turned net long for the first time since Mar-21. Gross longs were the highest since Oct-16. Viewed as a barometer of yen carry trades, article noted capitulation was triggered by recent FX intervention operations and the BOJ rate hike in July-end. Nikkei editorial highlighted the US-Japan OIS spread, which has defined market direction and noted US factor remains the main driver. Recent recovery in US OIS reflects confidence in the soft-landing scenario stimulated by strong data headlines. Renewed downward pressure on yen providing some support for yen carry trades Yet, this narrative has been debated in the market, posing uncertainties toward the outlook. Suggested Powell's Jackson Hole testimony may cause more fluctuations depending on his confidence in the economy.

    • China Premier Li calls for more efforts to boost domestic demand:

      • Xinhua cited comments by Premier Li at a plenary State Council meeting Friday stressing the importance of reforms and accomplishing annual economic and social development goals. Added that more should be done to expand domestic demand with a focus on consumption, particularly in services. On investment, Li said it was essential to effectively leverage the role of government as well as implementing policies supporting private investment. Notably, called for an expansion in the scope, scale and proportion of LGSBs. Separately, a government circular announced a doubling of trade-in subsidies for NEVs to CNY20,000 ($2,791) and ICE vehicles to CNY15,000 (Xinhua). Follows a Reuters discussion on the mounting urgency of additional stimulus in light of soft economic data. One policy adviser said Beijing may decide in October to bring forward part of next year's bond issuance quota if growth did not show signs of bottoming out in the summer. Spending on usual infrastructure may pivot towards demand support, responding to longstanding calls from analysts. Citing China Daily, three economists from government-backed think tanks proposed additional direct support to consumers worth at least CNY1T ($139B) in either cash or vouchers, equivalent to 0.8% of 2023 GDP.

    • Japan stock market may take a while to return to record highs:

      • Nikkei discussed the outlook for Japan equities, following the 50% retracement from the prior trough that came as a major relief. While the milestone portends a full recovery, the path from here faces uncertainties. Mirroring the US market, Nikkei VIX has fallen back sharply from a top of 70.7, though at 26.5 on Friday, remains above the danger threshold of 20. Moreover, prospects for additional gains appear relatively limited based on key analyst metrics. On the positive side, analysts upgraded their ratings, taking the aggregate Revision Index to 35.2, the highest since Sep-21. Forward EPS recovered to 15.6 on Friday from a low of 13.0 on 5-Aug, compared to 17.6 on 11-Jul. Article noted current level is somewhat above the 10-year average 14.9. But the pre-selloff strength coincided with a USD/JPY rate of 160, and in the current environment, cited SBI Securities estimates of an upper bound in the 16 range, equating to a Nikkei index of ~39K. With S&P 500 forward EPS trending down from its 28-May peak of 243.11 and forward PER of 23 well above the 10-year average of 19, US profitability concerns and overbought conditions pose a headwind for Nikkei gains. Story also reviewed price action following the 1987 Black Monday, which saw a 50% retracement in two sessions, though market fell to a deeper trough after a month and a full recovery took six months.

    • Japan earnings scorecard mostly positive amid AI, FX tailwinds:

      • Nikkei analysis of Q1 earnings found just over a fifth of companies posted record earnings. Main drivers were AI-related demand and weak yen as well as gains from the unwinding of cross shareholdings. Sample included some 1,920 ex-financials with comparable data going back at least five years. Proportion of record highs was 22.4%, up from 21.5% a year earlier. However, article recalled FY24 guidance points to a 1% decline in aggregate net profit, little changed from initial projections of a 2% decrease. Risk factors include ongoing China macro weakness, rapid yen appreciation and the US economic outlook. Still, Nikkei also calculated Q1 beat rate of 70% in a small sample of 130 firms with the biggest surprise coming from Toyota (7203.JP). Noted weak yen led to broader upside surprise among automakers while AI demand translated to notable beats in tech-related companies. Misses were attributed intensifying competition in US and sluggish China economy. Broader performance was mostly positive with 60% of ~1,080 TSE Prime constituents with a March FY-end logging profit growth, up nearly 10 ppt from a year earlier.

    • Japan LDP leadership race looking set to draw a crowded field:

      • Nikkei reported multiple LDP members are preparing to declare for the presidential election next month. Article highlighted growing support among the younger demographic for former economic security minister Takayuki Kobayashi, who sources indicated plans to announce as early as today. Katsunobu Kato, a senior member who served as chief cabinet secretary for former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, also expressed interest in the race on Friday. But Kato is a member of the faction led by Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi who is also considering a run. Digital Transformation Minister Taro Kono is said to have outlined his campaign strategy to faction leader and LDP Vice President Taro Aso last Monday and is close to securing the necessary 20 votes. Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa also reached out to several party lawmakers that day. Others considered to be in the running include former party Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba, former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi and Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi. FNN reported plans finalized for a vote on 27-Sep, corroborated by Nikkei, citing multiple sources. LDP election commission to make a formal decision tomorrow.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +22.7% 3382.JP (Seven & i): confirms receipt of non-binding proposal from Alimentation Couche-Tard to acquire all shares of the company

      • +10.2% 817.HK (China Jinmao Holdings Group): guides H1 net income attributable +130% vs year-ago CNY432.9M, implying around CNY995.6M

      • +2.5% WBC.AU (Westpac Banking): reports Q3 unaudited NPAT A$1.8B, +6% vs H1 average

      • +0.8% 293.HK (Cathay Pacific Airways): reports July traffic +16.1% y/y

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -18.0% 1176.HK (Zhuguang Holdings Group): to be removed from Hang Seng Composite Index

      • -10.4% F83.SP (COSCO Shipping International (Singapore)): proposes renounceable non-underwritten rights issue to raise SG$273.2M

      • -3.1% 7203.JP (Toyota Motor): reportedly moving to convert most Toyota, Lexus line-up to hybrid-only models

      • -3.0% 1313.HK (China Resources Building Materials Technology Holdings): reports H1 net income attributable CNY165.8M vs year-ago restated CNY556.0M

      • -1.9% 2016.HK (China Zheshang Bank): president Zhang Rongsen resigns due to personal reasons, effective immediately, chairman Lu Jianqiang appointed acting interim president

      • -1.4% 3.HK (Hong Kong & China Gas): reports H1 net income attributable HK$3.04B vs year-ago HK$3.61B

      • -1.1% 2887.TT (Taishin Financial Holdings): Shin Kong Financial Holding, Taishin Financial Holdings reportedly to further discuss merger on Thursday

      • -0.4% 763.HK (ZTE): reports H1 net income attributable CNY5.73B vs StreetAccount CNY5.45B

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Japan June

        • Core machinery orders +2.1% m/m vs consensus +1.1% and (3.2%) in prior month

          • Q3 survey projection +0.2% q/q vs actual (0.1%) in Q2

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: (674.05) or (1.77%) to 37388.62

      • Hang Seng: 139.41 or +0.80% to 17569.57

      • Shanghai Composite: 14.24 or +0.49% to 2893.67

      • Shenzhen Composite: (1.48) or (0.10%) to 1547.45

      • ASX200: 9.30 or +0.12% to 7980.40

      • KOSPI: (22.87) or (0.85%) to 2674.36

      • SENSEX: 44.65 or +0.06% to 80481.49

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: (1.65) or (1.11%) to 145.9810

      • $-KRW: (14.55) or (1.08%) to 1335.6700

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.24% to 0.6686

      • $-INR: +0.05 or +0.06% to 83.9209

      • $-CNY: (0.03) or (0.41%) to 7.1354

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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