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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE (0.41%) to 8338.00, DAX +0.70% to 18311.35, CAC40 +0.20% to 7438.58, STOXX 600 +0.22% to 511.01

Aug 16 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • European equity markets mostly higher with the exception of the FTSE. Follows positive close on Thursday. Asian markets higher. Nikkei outperforming with gains of more than 3%. Hang Seng and Kospi also rallying ~2%. ASX also higher. US equity markets softer with S&P down 0.5% in Friday trading, near worst levels and off some premarket strength. Comes after US equities rallied on Thursday with S&P and Nasdaq both up for a sixth straight session. Bonds firmer, which sees US 10-year yield off 3 bps at 3.90%. Bund down 3 bps. OAT 2 bps lower. Gilts up 2bps to 3.95%. US Dollar softer across the board. Oil down over 2%. Gold up over 1%, to fresh all-time highs. Industrial metals mostly softer.

    • Risk-on sentiment attributed to better-than-expected US retail sales data and positive takeaways from WMT's earnings, allaying concerns about US consumer health and putting more traction behind soft landing narrative. Dovish Fedspeak also helping with markets primed for 25 bp rate cut next month. US growth optimism translating to strength in Japan with Nikkei heading for largest weekly gain since early 2020. Sentiment aided further by renewed yen weakness after currency fell to two-week low against dollar.

    • Quiet macro calendar in Europe. Focus on UK retail sales, which rebounded in July. Follows this week's upbeat growth data, easing in underlying inflation measures and wage growth to provide a positive backdrop for UK assets. Eurozone trade balance saw much larger-than-expected surplus amid a drop in imports. In the US, July housing starts came in well below consensus (lowest monthly level since May 2020) and June revised lower; permits missed as well. Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment (and inflation expectations) for August coming later today. In addition, Fed's Goolsbee speaks early.

    • Overseas, RBA Governor Bullock dismissed prospects of near-term rate cut in comments to lawmakers; acknowledged market rate cut pricing by year-end and pushed back against expectations. RBNZ Assistant Governor Silk reiterated central bank will proceed with rate cuts in measured way. PBOC Governor Pan reaffirmed pledge to strengthen efforts to support economic recovery. Singapore export growth much stronger than forecast, underpinned by electronics shipments.

  • Digest:

    • STOXX Europe 600 sectors:

      • Outperformers: Autos & Parts +1.14%, Retail +1.03%, Insurance +0.91%, Banks +0.86%, Financial Svcs +0.55%, Utilities +0.45%, Construct & Mtls +0.36%, Chemicals +0.32%, Technology +0.24%,

      • Underperformers: Real Estate (0.67%), Energy (0.37%), Food, Beverage and Tobacco (0.11%), Basic Resources (0.03%), Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores +0.01%, Health Care +0.00%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.08%, Media +0.10%, Consumer Products and Services +0.09%, Travel & Leisure +0.13%,

    • Macro:

      • UK:

        • UK retail sales beat expectations in Jul (Baha)

      • Germany:

        • German coalition tensions flare as FDP launches provocative policy blitz (Politico)

      • Corporate:

        • Bayer wins victory in US legal battle against Roundup cancer claims (Reuters)

        • US FDA approves AstraZeneca's non-small cell lung cancer treatment (Reuters)

        • Stellantis faces US shareholder lawsuit over alleged fraud and disappointing earnings (Reuters)

        • UK treasury woos Revolut for London IPO as fintech favours New York listing (FT)

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • UK Jul Retail Sales +1.4% y/y vs consensus +1.4% and prior revised (0.3%) from (0.2%)

      • Eurozone Jun Trade Balance €22.3B vs consensus €13.3B and prior €13.9B

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (Sep 24): ($1.64) or (2.10%) to $76.52

      • €-$ +0.0020 or +0.18% to 1.0993

      • £-$ +0.0040 or +0.31% to 1.2894

      • €-£ (0.0010) to 0.8527

      • S&P 500 (0.13%)

      • Performance year-to-date:

        • FTSE 100: +7.43%

        • DAX: +9.36%

        • MIB: +8.70%

        • Stoxx 600: +6.71%

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