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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +3.64%, Hang Seng +1.88%, Shanghai Composite +0.07% as of 04:10 ET

Aug 16 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities finished higher almost everywhere Friday. Region led by Japan stocks with the Nikkei recording its first weekly gain in a month. Strong gains in Hong Kong but mainland stocks dipped into the close. Solid gains for tech-orientated markets in Seoul and Taipei. Australia also supported by tech. India trading higher, Southeast Asia also saw solid gains. US futures higher, Europe seeing a strong opening hour. US dollar flat with DXY index still below 103, yen, AUD and NZD all stronger. Treasury yields mixed, JGB yields mostly higher. Crude blends lower, precious metals mixed, base metals under more pressure.

    • A strong day in Asia, ex mainland China, to end the week, which will likely be one of the best in the region for over a year. Japan markets added to their already impressive rally since tanking last week, and recorded its best week for four years as it gapped higher then added gains over the day. Tech stocks regionwide, and growth sectors in Hong Kong also notably higher. Regional risk-on sentiment a direct read across from the positive US economic data that indicated a 'goldilocks' scenario of falling inflation, imminent interest rate cuts, and a still growing economy.

    • In regional macro developments, RBA Governor Bullock dismissed prospects of near-term rate cut. RBNZ Assistant Governor Silk reiterated bank will proceed with rate cuts in measured way though left door open to quicker easing depending on pace of wage and price setting behavior. Singapore's volatile exports grew much stronger than forecast; Malaysia's Q2 final GDP reading was stronger than initial estimates; PBOC Governor Pan reiterated pledge to support economic recovery but gave little detail. Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra, was elected by the House of Representatives to be Thailand's 31st and youngest prime minister.

    • Mitsui & Co (8031.JP) has bought a stake in Tasco Auto as it looks to tap into the growth of the auto sector in Vietnam. A Toyota Motor (7203.JP) executive said the company is moving to convert most and maybe eventually all of its mani Toyota and Lexus line-ups to hybrid-only models. Alibaba (9988.HK) may see its stock added to Stock Connect, which could have a positive effect on driving inflows; company announced disappointing revenues reflecting weak Chinese demand. Celltrion (068270.KS) said it will not pursue its merger with Celltrion Pharma (068760.KS) for the time being. Ola Electric (544225.IN) launched its electric motorbike series just days after going public; stock sharply higher.

  • Digest:

    • Japan stocks, yen undergo another big push back towards status quo:

      • Japan equities rallied on Friday with the Nikkei up 3.64% to mark the second-largest gain this year and recovered just above the key 38K threshold. Weekly performance was the best since Apr-20. Main catalyst was broadly pinned on a stronger than expected US retail sales report, placing the goldilocks scenario back into play. With domestic news flow light, there was a lot of attention on technical analysis as Nikkei 225 achieved the Fibonacci 50% retracement (Nikkei). Candlestick charts also filled major gaps, while the 200-day moving average was topped for the first time since 1-Aug. Latest MOF data showed foreigners turning net buyers of Japan stocks for the first time in four weeks (Reuters). Yen was rangebound during the Tokyo session, though big move came overnight, taking USD/JPY from the low 147 range to as high as 149.38 in the early morning. Stronger US data offered a reprieve for yen carry trades and CTAs were said to have put some positions back on while they await confirmation of a Fed rate cut. Nikkei editorial highlighted notable developments in JPY implied vol, where despite the yen selloff, 1-month eased to the 10% range from the low-12% yesterday and a peak of 15% on 5-Aug. Lower implied vol said to reflect diminished risk of further yen carry unwinds.

    • PBOC Governor Pan flags more policy innovations, reaffirms accommodative stance:

      • In a Xinhua interview, Governor Pan said China will focus on improving monetary policy and macro-prudential policy to maintain the stability of both currency value and the financial system. Signaled a gradual shift away from quantitative targets, place greater emphasis on the use of price-based tools such as interest rates and enrich its monetary policy toolkit. Reiterated PBOC would adhere to a supportive monetary policy and intensify counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments. While there were no specifics, added central bank will move to implement already-introduced policies and measures, develop additional policy tools and enhance policy coordination to meet annual economic and social development goals, and develop technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance and digital finance. Also vowed to prevent the emergence of systemic risks by balancing economic growth, structural adjustments and risk prevention, increasing the efficacy of financial regulation, advancing legislation on financial stability, and resolving risks in areas such as local government debt, real estate, and small and medium-sized banks.

    • RBA Governor Bullock dismisses prospect of near-term rate cut:

      • In opening remarks before parliamentary committee, RBA Governor Bullock repeated central bank not expected to be in position to cut rates in near-term given focus remains on potential upside risks to inflation. Bullock pushed back against markets pricing in rate cut by year-end, stating it's premature to be thinking about easing. She reiterated inflation not projected to return to 2-3% midpoint until 2026, later than RBA assumed in May. Discussed upside pressures from sticky services prices, which are continuing to rise at ~5% pace. As a result, policy will need to remain sufficiently restrictive until board is confident inflation moving sustainably towards target range. Last week Bullock revealed RBA seriously considered hiking rates at its August meeting with underlying inflation still too high. However, most economists still expect next rate move will be down with views on timing ranging from Q1 to Q2 2025. Takeaways from Australian July jobs figures viewed data as indicative of resilient labor market where pressures are only slowly dissipating amid strong supply. Gradual pace of labor market cooling expected to keep rates higher for longer.

    • RBNZ Assistant Governor Silk says pace of rate cuts depends on wage, price setting behavior:

      • In a Bloomberg interview, RBNZ Assistant Governor Silk said if decline in price and wage setting behavior continues at quicker pace it gives opportunity for central bank to think about changing pace of rate cuts. Conversely, slower pace of tightening may eventuate if that process takes longer. In August Monetary Policy Statement, RBNZ's revised OCR path assumes rate of 3.85% by end-2025 vs prior estimate 5.15%. That would imply 5-6 more rate cuts from current 5.25%. Economists widely expect 25 bp cuts at its October and November meetings, though some noted risk of 50 bp move with markets currently pricing in 75 bp of easing by end-2024. RBNZ considered 50 bp cut in August though Silk said she would not put too much stock in that as a signal of intent. She echoed Governor Orr in noting RBNZ will proceed in a measured way and will remain data dependent. While RBNZ anticipates triple-digit recession, Silk also noted possibility that low productivity limits potential economic output, resulting in inflation pressures if growth recovers.

    • Paetongtarn Shinawatra voted in as Thailand's new prime minister:

      • Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra, was elected by Thailand's House of Representatives to be country's new PM Friday, winning approval with 319 votes versus 145 against, 27 abstentions (BangkokPost). Becomes 31st and youngest PM in Thailand's modern history, succeeded Srettha Thavisin dismissed by constitutional court Wednesday for ethical violation. Successor to election-winning Move Forward Party, People's Party, did not vote in her favor. Shinawatra said she would continue much of Pheu Thai controlled government policies although may abandon digital handout plan (Bloomberg). Finance minister will also leave his post in limited cabinet reshuffle. New PM will face multiple challenges as economy underperforms region, popular support for her party dwindles and transfers to People's Party (Reuters). Shinawatra family differences with conservative royalist establishment will also require careful managing from beginning, said analysts, as Srettha's removal represents breakdown in truce between two sides.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +21.3% 2618.HK (JD Logistics): reports Q2 non-IFRS net income CNY2.46B vs StreetAccount CNY1.10B

      • +10.7% 001040.KS (CJ Corp): reports Q2 operating profit KRW666.35B vs FactSet KRW582.77B

      • +8.9% 9618.HK (JD.com): reports Q2 EPADS CNY9.36 ex-items vs StreetAccount CNY6.19

      • +5.2% 66.HK (MTR Corp.): reports H1 underlying business profit HK$5.76B vs StreetAccount HK$4.61B

      • +4.6% 9988.HK (Alibaba Group): reports Q1 EPS CNY16.44 ex-items vs StreetAccount CNY15.00

      • +3.4% 762.HK (China Unicom (Hong Kong)): reports H1 net income attributable CNY13.79B vs StreetAccount CNY13.61B

      • +1.5% NAB.AU (National Australia Bank): reports Q3 statutory NPAT A$1.90B, +9% y/y

      • +1.3% 068270.KS (Celltrion): board decides not to proceed merger with Celltrion Pharm at this time

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -8.0% 2588.HK (BOC Aviation): reports H1 NPAT $460.0M vs implied guidance $444.6-470.8M

      • -6.0% 004370.KS (Nongshim): reports Q2 operating profit KRW43.68B vs FactSet KRW50.18B

      • -3.5% 1.HK (CK Hutchison Holdings): reports H1 net income attributable HK$10.21B vs year-ago HK$11.21B

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • New Zealand

        • Q2 PPI Input +1.4% versus +0.7% in prior quarter

        • Q2 PPI Output +1.07% versus +0.8% in prior quarter

      • Singapore July

        • Non-oil exports +15.7 y/y vs consensus +1.2% and (8.7%) in prior month

          • Non-oil exports +12.2% m/m vs consensus +2.2% and (0.4%) in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 1,336.03 or +3.64% to 38062.67

      • Hang Seng: 321.02 or +1.88% to 17430.16

      • Shanghai Composite: 2.07 or +0.07% to 2879.43

      • Shenzhen Composite: (4.62) or (0.30%) to 1548.93

      • ASX200: 105.60 or +1.34% to 7971.10

      • KOSPI: 52.73 or +1.99% to 2697.23

      • SENSEX: 993.73 or +1.26% to 80099.61

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: (0.38) or (0.26%) to 148.9200

      • $-KRW: (9.85) or (0.72%) to 1355.2600

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.30% to 0.6630

      • $-INR: +0.01 or +0.01% to 83.9652

      • $-CNY: +0.00 or +0.07% to 7.1712

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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