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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +0.78%, Hang Seng (0.02%), Shanghai Composite +0.94% as of 04:10 ET

Aug 15 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities ended a mostly higher Thursday. Japan's boards saw another solid day although were well of their highs by the close. New Zealand outperformed for the second day, Australia also higher. Taiwan lower as semi-stocks sank, Greater China mixed as mainland stocks gained but Hong Kong was flat. Southeast Asia mixed. South Korea and India closed for holidays. US futures higher, Europe rallied in the first hour. US dollar flat, AUD an outperformer in Asia, yen flat, yuan weaker following economic data. Treasury and JGB yields higher across tenors, CGB yields also higher. Crude oil futures slightly higher, precious metals up, base metals mixed with iron ore selling off on warnings over steel demand.

    • Asia equities opened brightly following on from overnight gains on Wall Street, but the rally rather faded over the day with tepid Chinese economic activity data taking the shine off the positive momentum. Softer-than-expected US CPI data reinforced expectations of a September rate cut with Fed fund futures showing a 63% chance of a 25 bp cut and a 37% chance of a 50 bp cut. Sentiment in Japan boosted by Q2 GDP growth data that topped expectations on higher private consumption.

    • China July activity data showed retail sales growth at 2.7% largely on base year effects, while industrial output expanded 5.1% although there was notable weakness in the steel sector that saw output fall more than 9%. Fixed asset investment growth also weakened while other housing metrics were mixed with housing sales registering narrower fall but new home prices shrinking at the fastest pace in nine years. Unemployment rose for the first time since February. Elsewhere, Australian employment data showed a surprising surge in monthly jobs growth while unemployment rate edged higher amid record participation rate. Experts said Thailand's constitutional court dismissal of its PM and cabinet could lead to another political crisis, delay a consumer stimulus program and hinder FDI.

    • CK Infrastructure (1038.HK) and CK Assets Holdings (1113.HK) are to acquire a portfolio of onshore UK wind farms for (HK$3.5B) in a consortium; applies for a second listing on the London Stock Exchange. Softbank (9984.JP) has dropped plans to develop an AI chip with Intel to compete with Nvidia following disagreements over volume and speed.

  • Digest:

    • China activity mostly on the softer side of expectations:

      • Industrial production rose 5.1% y/y in July, compared to consensus 5.2% and follows 5.3% in the previous month. Support came from ongoing sharp growth in integrated circuits combined with notable strength in industrial robots, generators and PCs. Smartphones remained moderately positive. Autos fell overall despite sharp growth in EVs. Materials mostly declined including steel and cement. Fossil fuels mostly higher except for crude oil refinement. Retail sales expanded 2.7% vs consensus 2.6%, picking up from 2.0% in June. However, goods sales were flat with most of the growth apparently coming from catering. Most major categories logged declines, including autos, building materials, household appliances, apparel and jewelry. Bright spots included communication equipment, beverages and leisure products. Main disappointment came in fixed asset investment, up 3.6% y/y YTD vs consensus and prior month's 3.9%. Real estate investment declines deepened to 10.2% from 10.1%, contrasting with consensus 9.9%. Yet, details were relatively positive, showing marginally narrower declines in housing sales and developer funding, albeit both remain deeply negative. New construction starts remained down by more than 20%. NBS noted FAI up 8.0% excluding real estate with infrastructure up 4.9% and manufacturing up 9.3%. Unemployment rate was 5.2% vs consensus 5.1% and follows 5.0% in June.

    • China new home prices fall for 13th consecutive month:

      • New home prices in China were down 0.7% m/m in July and have dropped for 13th straight month, logging same pace of decline as prior two months, based on Reuters calculation of NBS data. Prices were lower 4.9% y/y, following 4.5% slide in June. 66 out of 70 cities surveyed reported m/m price drop in new home prices, compared with 64 in June. 68 reported m/m drops in existing home prices, compared with 66 in June. Easing measures launched in May have spurred increased demand in major cities but buying interest remains sluggish in smaller cities. Bloomberg added investors remain skeptical that these easing measures will be sufficient to steer turnaround given limited PBOC funding revealed and slow progress of existing trial programs. Report from Bloomberg Intelligence showed China has at least 48M homes that were sold before being built, a threat to developers' revenue as people could start avoiding pre-sales. Earlier this month Bloomberg reported China rejected IMF proposal to use central government funds to complete unfinished housing, which would amount to almost $1T based on 2023 GDP.

    • SoftBank held talks with Intel to supply AI chips:

      • FT, citing people familiar with the matter, reported SoftBank (9984.JP) held talks with Intel (INTC) about producing AI chips, though the plan fell through because Intel struggled to meet SoftBank's demands for volume and speed. Article said a tie-up would have accelerated SoftBank's efforts to incorporate technologies possessed by Arm (ARM) with Graphcore to create a rival to Nvidia's AI chips. While sources indicated negotiations could restart given the limited number of chip manufacturers capable of producing AI processors, SoftBank is now said to be focusing on discussions with TSMC (2330.TT). CEO Masayoshi Son has fielded interest from some of the major tech firms including Google (GOOGL) and Meta (META) and required investment could be partially funded by advanced orders from Big Tech. Chip production capacity was highlighted as a significant hurdle. According to one source, if an agreement with TSMC can be reached, Son may need another partner to provide the chip design expertise that Intel had offered. Ballpark estimates indicate the initiative could run into the tens of billions of dollars, but people close to SoftBank said any figure was unrealistic at this stage.

    • Japan Q2 GDP beats amid private consumption rebound:

      • GDP expanded 3.1% q/q annualized in Q2, above JCER consensus 2.1%. Follows revised 2.3% contraction in the prior quarter (from 2.9%), marking the fastest growth since 1Q23. Nominal GDP growth of 7.4% was the strongest in a year. Main factor was a stronger than expected rebound in private demand. Private consumption rose 1.0% q/q vs consensus 0.6%, breaking a run of four straight declines. Notable boost came from a sharp rebound in durable goods after auto suspensions held back spending in Q1. Semi-durables and non-durables were also positive, while services were little changed. Capex grew 0.9% vs consensus 0.7%, reversing a 0.4% decrease in Q1. Residential investment also bounced 1.6% for the first increase in four quarters. Contribution from public demand was mildly positive. Net external demand was a small drag as import growth narrowly outpaced exports. Employee compensation increased 0.8%, extending a steady pickup over the past three quarters. GDP deflator slowed to 3.0% y/y from 3.4% while domestic deflator firmed slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Recall that previews had placed the spotlight on private demand as a litmus test for cyclical momentum. Going forward, consensus projections point to growth momentum easing back to around the 1% trend pace into next year.

    • Economists weigh outlook for China policy support:

      • Ongoing weakness in China private demand has economists weighing prospects of next easing steps after July Politburo meeting signaled more pro-growth policy stance. Dollar weakness and associated reduction of capital outflow pressures seen providing opening for PBOC to move more aggressively on policy Standard Chartered acknowledged policy trade-offs facing PBOC but with growth a near-term priority, expects 10 bp cut to 7DRR and 20 bp cut to 1Y MLF rate in next two quarters to lower funding costs, supported by 25 bp RRR cut in Q3 and Q1 2025 to boost liquidity. Following subdued July credit data Morgan Stanley expects two more 10 bp policy rate cuts in Sep-Dec, augmented by support for consumer goods trade-in program. Markets have often looked to government for sufficient fiscal response to revive consumption, though hopes remain low. Goldman Sachs noted intensity of consumption stimulus has fallen short of expectations since mid-May, particularly policies intended to boost housing and an absence of more forceful measures such as income transfer programs. Moreover, only ~38% of annual LGSB quota was utilized in H1 (Reuters).

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +6.8% 3197.JP (Skylark Holdings): reports H1 revenue ¥191.44B, +13% vs year-ago ¥169.79B, operating income ¥11.98B vs year-ago ¥2.85B

      • +5.1% 7747.JP (Asahi Intecc): reports FY revenue ¥107.55B vs FactSet ¥104.88B, operating profit ¥22.14B vs FactSet ¥22.55B; appoints president & CEO Masahiko Miyata as chairman, effective 1-Sep

      • +2.9% 2376.TT (Gigabyte Technology): reports Q2 EPS NT$4.66 vs FactSet NT$4.03

      • +2.2% 9984.JP (SoftBank Group): reportedly held talks with Intel about producing AI chip to compete with Nvidia, but talks failed to progress as Intel struggled to meet requirements

      • +1.4% 1038.HK (CK Infrastructure Holdings): reports revenue HK$19.09B vs year-ago HK$19.53B; consortium comprising CKI, CK Asset and Power Assets to acquire portfolio of operating onshore wind farms in UK for £350M (HK$3.5B); applies for secondary listing on the London Stock Exchange

      • +1.2% G13.SP (Genting Singapore): reports H1 adjusted EBITDA SG$570.8M, +26% vs year-ago SG$452.5M

      • +1.1% 6361.JP (Ebara Corp): reports H1 revenue ¥394.54B, +8% vs guidance ¥400.00BB

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -18.0% 1316.HK (Nexteer Automotive Group): reports H1 net income attributable $15.7M vs year-ago $34.0M

      • -8.7% 1910.HK (Samsonite International): reports H1 adjusted net income $174.0M vs StreetAccount $178.6M; to seek a dual listing of Samsonite's shares in US

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • China July

        • Industrial production +5.1% y/y vs consensus +5.2% and +5.3% in prior month

        • Retail sales +2.7% y/y vs consensus +2.6% and +2.0% in prior month

        • Fixed asset investment (YTD) +3.6% y/y vs consensus +3.9% and +3.9% in prior month

        • Unemployment rate 5.2% vs consensus 5.1% and 5.0% in prior month

        • New house prices (0.7%) m/m vs (0.7%) in prior month (Reuters)

      • Japan Q2

        • GDP +3.1% q/q annualized vs consensus +2.1% and revised (2.3%) in prior quarter

          • GDP +0.8% q/q vs consensus +0.5% and revised (0.6%) in prior quarter

      • Australia July

        • Employment +58.2K m/m vs consensus +20.0K and revised +52.3K in June

          • Unemployment rate 4.2% vs consensus 4.1% and 4.1% in June

          • Participation rate 67.1% vs consensus 66.9% and 66.9% in June

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 284.21 or +0.78% to 36726.64

      • Hang Seng: (4.22) or (0.02%) to 17109.14

      • Shanghai Composite: 26.70 or +0.94% to 2877.36

      • Shenzhen Composite: 12.63 or +0.82% to 1553.55

      • ASX200: 14.80 or +0.19% to 7865.50

      • KOSPI: 0.00 or 0.00% to 2644.50

      • SENSEX: 0.00 or 0.00% to 79105.88

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: (0.12) or (0.08%) to 147.2160

      • $-KRW: (3.83) or (0.28%) to 1354.5200

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.25% to 0.6618

      • $-INR: (0.03) or (0.04%) to 83.9470

      • $-CNY: +0.01 or +0.20% to 7.1524

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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