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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +0.58%, Hang Seng (0.35%), Shanghai Composite (0.60%) as of 04:10 ET

Aug 14 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities ended mostly higher Wednesday. Japan markets endured a volatile day, at one point erasing a 1%+ gain before recovering into the close. New Zealand stocks surged after RBNZ call on rates, ASX also higher. Solid gains for Seoul and Taipei. Southeast Asia and India higher. Greater China stocks bucking the positive trend to end lower. US futures edging higher, Europe opened with further gains. US dollar consolidating overnight losses as DXY stays below 103, NZD weakened on RBNZ, yen strengthened. Treasury yields mostly higher, JGB yields lower, CGB yield lower across tenors. Crude higher on API inventory levels, precious metals lower, base metals under pressure.

    • Asia markets continued where Wall Street left off with broad gains in almost every major board, ex China, which has its own set of drivers at present. Japan equities initially gained the most before PM Kishida confirmed his intentions to step down as LDP leader and by de fault also giving up his premiership following a series of scandals and low approval ratings. New Zealand stocks gained the most amid a sharply weaker NZD after the RBNZ cut its OCR by 25 bp to 5.25% and made dovish changes to the OCR track.

    • China focus continued to be on its bond market where yields dipped again today after a local media report hinted at a pause by the PBOC in its battle against the bond market rally. In other macro developments, Reuters Tankan survey showed Japan manufacturer and services sector sentiment easing mildly in August amid subdued China demand. South Korea unemployment fell to eight-month low. India wholesale inflation rose by just 2.0% y/y in June, a three-month low and mirroring the fall in CPI.

    • The Hengli Group is said to be preparing to IPO shipbuilding unit worth $100M in Hong Kong. Hon Hai (2317.TT) reported a 6% rise in Q2 net profits, driven by AI server demand and 'strong growth' from the technology boom. Reliance Industries (500325.IN) and Walt Disney have offered to sell several channels to win faster antitrust approval for their $8.5B India assets merger. State Bank of India (500112.IN) said it aims to sell its Yes Bank (532648.IN) stake worth an estimated $2.2B by the end of March 2024.

  • Digest:

    • Japan PM Kishida confirms he will not to run in LDP leadership race:

      • According to NHK, Prime Minister Kishida said at a press conference that he will not run in the next LDP presidential election due next month, effectively meaning he will step down as PM after a new leader is appointed. Kishida said his withdrawal sends a clear message to the public that the LDP will change. Article recalled the administration has been mired in a fundraising scandal that led to the abolition of party factions and punishments for individuals exposed. Yet, approval ratings continued to languish, prompting internal party frustrations that the current administration cannot compete in the next general election. Bloomberg reprised the list of usual contenders for succession -- senior official Shigeru Ishiba, Digital Transformation Minister Taro Kono, Foreign Affairs Minister Yoko Kamikawa, LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi, former environment minister Shinjiro Koizumi, and Minister for Economic Security Sanae Takaichi. Latest Nikkei-TV Tokyo opinion poll conducted in late July showed Ishiba and Koizumi look to be the clear front-runners, including among LDP supporters. Takaichi ranked third, albeit with relatively low support among the general public. LDP election administration panel on 5-Aug agreed to set a date for the party election at the next meeting on 20-Aug (Nikkei).

    • Kishida's withdrawal as LDP leader adds to Japan market uncertainty:

      • Quick takes from Japan market watchers broadly indicated Prime Minister Kishida's withdrawal from the LDP leadership vote next month likely adds to uncertainty (Bloomberg, Reuters). While some noted the decision was not a surprise given persistently low approval ratings, suggestions for Kishida's successor varied widely with no consensus on whom markets favor. On BOJ policy, the main contenders have expressed support for monetary policy normalization with the exception of Minister for Economic Security Sanae Takaichi. Implications elsewhere are murky. Analysts pointed to uncertainty surrounding the government push to encourage individual investor participation, particularly via the revamped NISA program, which was Kishida's initiative under the "New Capitalism" slogan. Mizuho Chief Japan Strategist Shoko Mori suggested equities stand to be impacted the most, given yen direction depends on external factors and JGBs are a function of supply-demand conditions. Upshot for fiscal policy also unclear after the administration had legislated an aggressive expansion of the defense budget while also implementing economic stimulus measures.

    • RBNZ cuts interest rates with inflation on track to return to target:

      • RBNZ cut OCR by 25 bp to 5.25% Wednesday. Ahead of the meeting views were mixed on whether RBNZ would hold or cut. However, Governor Orr revealed RBNZ weighed a 50 bp rate hike today (Bloomberg). Committee agree policy can be come less restrictive with weakness in domestic economic activity more pronounced, and output gap more negative than assumed in May. Balance of risks shifted more to downside with members concerned about avoiding unnecessary instability in output and employment. Noted inflation fell "considerably" in Q2 with rate-sensitive CPI components having declined further, giving Committee greater confidence inflation will return to 1-3% target band in Q3 2024. Monetary Policy Statement showed dovish changes to OCR track, which modelled another 25 bp rate cut by end-2024 and end-2025 OCR of 3.85% vs prior estimate 5.14%. Said policy will need to remain restrictive for some time, and that pace of further easing conditional on pricing behavior continuing to adapt to low inflation environment and inflation expectations remaining anchored near 2% target.

    • Chinese traders pay premium for bonds while prices rise further amid easing expectations:

      • Bloomberg citing people with knowledge reported Chinese investors, seeking mainly 7Y and 10Y notes, are willing to pay above asking price of big banks, as reflected in lower yields of 0.1 bp to 0.25 bp, to evade regulators aiming to tame bond rallies. Added traders from non-bank financial institutions specifying in their orders to brokers that they don't want to purchase from any of the big state banks as regulators have asked these lenders to keep records of counterparties. Article acknowledging difficulties for authorities to rein in CGB demand and interventions inadvertently lead to price distortions and disrupt trading. Treasury bond futures rose across tenors on Wednesday which Reuters noted an article from PBOC-affiliated FinancialNews said on Tuesday that long-duration yields have climbed back toward reasonable levels and short-term speculation is falling, which some market participants said is a signal PBOC is pausing its fights against bond bulls. Falling yields also came after disappointing July credit data, which showed yuan loan dropped to 15-year low, raising monetary easing expectations.

    • Japan FX market split on whether next BOJ rate hike will come this year:

      • Nikkei cited a monthly QUICK FX market survey (n=70) highlighting the division in views on whether the next BOJ rate hike would happen this year. Notably, 46% of respondents looked for a move next year or later, followed by 30% in December, 20% in October and 3% in September. Cited doubts over a BOJ move until equity markets stabilize. However, poll was conducted Aug 5-8 in the midst of the sharp equity selloff. Majority 55% see yen trading as high as 135~140 vs dollar this year, particularly around a Fed rate cut. On US politics, 54% expect Kamala Harris to win the presidential election in November, in which case, 68% do not anticipate much impact on USD/JPY. Rate hike calls contrast with a recent Bloomberg survey that showed a combined 65% projected a rate hike by year-end while noting risks to their forecasts amid last week's extreme market volatility. Recall the latest catalyst was Deputy Governor Uchida's remarks ruling out a rate hike while markets are unstable, though downplayed by some economists who did not see this a major signal.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +14.8% 2501.JP (Sapporo Holdings): reports H1 revenue ¥247.66B, +4% vs year-ago ¥238.53B, core operating profit ¥3.54B vs year-ago ¥3.51B; updates mid-to-long term management policies; seeking proposals for investment in the company's Real Estate Business

      • +8.2% 288.HK (WH Group): reports H1 net income attributable after biological FV adj $784M vs StreetAccount $666.0M

      • +5.6% 402340.KS (SK Square Co.): reports Q2 operating profit KRW774.81B vs year-ago (KRW734.51B)

      • +2.3% F34.SP (Wilmar International): reports H1 adjusted net income $606.3M, +5% vs year-ago $577.2M

      • +1.0% 4938.TT (Pegatron): reports Q2 EPS NT$2.10 vs FactSet NT$1.31

      • +0.0% 6666.HK (Evergrande Property Services Group): guides H1 net income to decline by 37% y/y

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -7.1% 4385.JP (Mercari): reports FY revenue ¥187.41B vs guidance ¥190.00B and FactSet ¥189.26B

      • -1.5% 4967.JP (Kobayashi Pharmaceutical): reports additional 11 deaths related to red yeast rice products that have not been reported to MHLW

      • -0.3% 3702.TT (WPG Holdings): reports Q2 EPS NT$0.73 vs year-ago NT$1.14 and prior guidance NT$0.54-0.78

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Japan

        • August Reuters Tankan manufacturers sentiment index +10 vs +11 in prior month

          • Service sector index +24 vs +26 in prior month

      • South Korea

        • July unemployment rate 2.5% vs 2.8% in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 209.92 or +0.58% to 36442.43

      • Hang Seng: (60.70) or (0.35%) to 17113.36

      • Shanghai Composite: (17.29) or (0.60%) to 2850.65

      • Shenzhen Composite: (13.43) or (0.86%) to 1540.92

      • ASX200: 23.90 or +0.31% to 7850.70

      • KOSPI: 23.00 or +0.88% to 2644.50

      • SENSEX: 166.26 or +0.21% to 79122.29

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.53 or +0.36% to 147.3610

      • $-KRW: (5.96) or (0.44%) to 1356.9700

      • A$-$: (0.00) or (0.02%) to 0.6631

      • $-INR: +0.05 or +0.06% to 83.9565

      • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 7.1529

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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