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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +3.45%, Hang Seng +0.36%, Shanghai Composite +0.34% as of 04:10 ET

Aug 13 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities ended mostly higher Tuesday following a largely negative morning. Japan stocks gained the most after they resumed trading post Monday's holiday and as the yen weakened notably since last Friday. Greater China markets ended higher following a lackluster morning, South Korea, Taiwan and Australia all ended a few points higher. Southeast Asia all higher, India down as Adani stocks remained under pressure. US futures higher, Europe opened with modest gains. US dollar flat, yen weaker again, strength elsewhere in Asia. Treasury yields higher, JGBs and CGBs flat. WTI crude futures back below $80/barrel, precious metals lower, base metals mixed.

    • Nikkei's rally has brought it back to levels prior to historical 5-Aug sell-off. Rebound has dovetailed with flurry of sell-side commentary highlighting cheaper valuations, earnings traction, yen weakening, retail buying, less stretched positioning, fall in BOJ rate hike expectations, and US tech rally. China stocks bouncing intraday from an eight-month low, but low volumes dominating flow with Tuesday's trading the lowest since Christmas Eve 2019. Further selling pressure on the horizon too after MSCI announced culling of dozens of stocks from its China country indexes. China bond yields steady following recent backup on PBOC/regulatory intervention headlines: banks and brokers ordered to scrutinize and curtail bond trading activities; banks in Jiangxi ordered not to settle their bond purchases.

    • Japan PPI inflation rose at quickest pace since Aug-2023 as weak yen drove up import costs. Australian wage inflation unexpectedly steadied as markets continue to price in rate cut by end-2024. Business confidence slipped and consumer sentiment rose from depressed levels. Singapore narrowed 2024 GDP growth forecast range amid resilient external demand despite also lowering export forecasts. India's inflation dipped to below RBI's target but it is unlikely to be enough for RBI to cut rates in the near term.

    • Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp (8316.JP) has raised its stake in Jefferies Financial to almost 11%. Packaging group Orora (ORA.AU) rejected a $2.25B takeover offer from private equity group Lone Star. Adani Enterprises (512599.IN) said the Hindenburg report on the SEBI chief won't impact its $2B QIP offering. Brainbees Solutions (544226.IN), which operates the FirstCry retail brand, nearly doubled in its Mumbai trading debut after raising $500M.

  • Digest:

    • Trading volumes in China shrink again to fresh four-year low:

      • Share transactions in mainland China fell to fresh four-year lows Tuesday just as local bond rally continued despite authorities frenzied efforts to rein in runaway bond prices. Trading volume in Shanghai and Shenzhen shrank to CNY477B to follow CNY 496B Monday, which was itself a fresh four-year low relative to China market capitalization (Caixin, EastMoney). Bloomberg noted volume contraction often signals pessimism is near trough levels however several similar episodes in China preceded panic-driven selling that pushed markets lower. Cited analyst saying poor stock returns relative to surging bonds key reason for current low volumes, long-term stocks appear cheap given long-term growth prospects. Bloomberg also noted trading volume in Hong Kong fell to HK$70.3B ($9B), lowest level since February. Downturn follows renewed equities optimism last week on signs of rotation out of Japan stocks into China names on cheap valuation grounds (Bloomberg).

    • China intensifies crackdown on bond market frenzy:

      • Bloomberg noted how Beijing is going all-out to crackdown on bond market frenzy, including telling rural banks in Jiangxi province not to settle recent purchases of CGBs, an order to effectively renege on their market obligations. Earlier Bloomberg citing people with knowledge reported that at least four Chinese brokerages are cutting back trading of CGBs since last week. Benchmark 10Y yield has inched up to around 2.25% after touching all-time low of about 2.12% earlier August. Recall Beijing is ramping up fights against bond bulls, targeting fund management companies to rural lenders. PBOC said in Q2 policy report late Friday that wealth management products based on bonds were exposed to interest-rate risk and could lead to losses if yields rise sharply. Noted CGBs have rallied this year amid strong demand for haven assets amid sluggish economy and monetary easing expectations. Meanwhile Reuters noted some investors said bond bull run still has legs, citing still-weak economy, deflationary pressures and low risk appetite.

    • Japan market attention returns to earnings:

      • Nikkei closed 3.45% higher at best levels on Tuesday as the second strongest session YTD took levels back to those preceding the big selloff on 5-Aug. Strength was mainly attributed to semiconductors on the back of overnight US tech strength, but broad-based gains came as corporate earnings returned to the fore with results mostly on the positive side. Nikkei highlighted some of the standout performances since the market rout -- Fujikura (5803.JP) up 47.1%, Lasertec (6920.JP) up 44.6%, Rakuten (4755.JP) up 26.2%, alongside a comparable sharp recovery among casualty insurers driven by resumption of optimism toward unwinding of cross shareholdings and shareholder payouts. Recent respite from yen strength was cited as another tailwind. However, Nikkei market preview cautioned investor conviction restrained by US CPI due Wednesday. Furthermore, domestic investors remain on alert following Thursday's magnitude 7.1 earthquake off Miyazaki prefecture that prompted an unprecedented warning from the Japan Meteorological Agency of a major quake around the Nankai trough, for which risks are seen higher than usual. Geopolitics also a concern as Middle East conflict may encourage profit-taking momentum.

    • Japan producer prices continue to strengthen, yet positive drivers are changing:

      • CGPI rose 3.0% y/y in July, compared to consensus 3.1%. Follows 2.9% in the previous month and marks the fastest increase since Aug-23. Main factor was a sharp pickup in utilities prices, largely reflecting the roll-off of energy subsidies in June. Key focus remains on import prices, which accelerated to 10.8% in yen basis (highest since Feb-23) from prior 9.5%, while rising 1.6% from 0.5% in contract currency terms. Gap mostly explained by cumulative yen weakness albeit July average showed only a 0.2% y/y depreciation vs dollar. Nikkei noted prospects for change in FX/utilities dynamics. First, stunted yen depreciation was the result of a sharp rally during the month. USD/JPY averaged 157 in July, compared with current market levels at around 148. Cited suggestions that yen-based import prices may undergo a sharp deceleration though near-term outlook difficult to read. Second, reinstatement of energy subsidies from Aug to Oct set to curb utilities price gains, citing Sompo Institute Plus estimates this will pose a drag of about 0.3 ppt to headline CGPI over the Sep-Nov data. Still, underlying developments showed evidence of ongoing cost passthrough in areas such as agriculture/forecast/fishery and food & beverages.

    • MSCI cuts dozens more China companies from its country indexes, adds stocks to India gauges:

      • MSCI will cut 57 companies from its China A index, and 62 from its All Shares index, on 30-Aug, adding just two names in each, paving way for possible cut to China's weighting in its flagship Emerging Markets index by year end. MSCI's influence on global stock flows mean year's third culling of China's index, following 66 in February and 56 in May, will add to selling pressure on mainland stocks as $7.9B ETFs follow MSCI's allocation (Bloomberg). Analysts suggested China's lower weighting could benefit Taiwan, South Korea and India specifically. MSCI also rejigged India's index, adding eight new stocks including RVNL (542649.IN), Samsung Electronics supplier Dixon Technologies (540699.IN) and HDFC Bank (500180.IN). Analysts said additions may mean India's weighting in EM index could reach 22% by year end from current 20%; added India overtaking China, currently 24.5% weight, may take longer (BusinessStandard).

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +13.4% BS6.SP (Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings)): reports H1 net income attributable CNY3.06B, +77% vs year-ago CNY1.73B

      • +13.0% 259960.KS (KRAFTON): reports Q2 revenue KRW707.0B vs StreetAccount KRW549.84B

      • +8.4% 8630.JP (Sompo): reports Q1 ordinary income ¥1.523T, +5% vs year-ago ¥1.449T

      • +7.5% 2423.HK (KE Holdings): reports Q2 adjusted EPADS CNY2.28 vs StreetAccount CNY1.58

      • +6.6% 8725.JP (MS&AD Insurance): reports Q1 ordinary profit ¥298.62B, +92% vs year-ago ¥155.45B

      • +6.5% 551.HK (Yue Yuen Industrial (Holdings)): reports H1 net income attributable $184.4M vs guidance $179.7-183.9M and year-ago $83.6M

      • +3.1% 097950.KS (CJ CheilJedang): reports Q2 operating profit KRW383.56B vs FactSet KRW373.70B

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -5.9% 6753.JP (Sharp Corp): reports Q1 revenue ¥531.96B vs FactSet ¥539.08B

      • -4.5% 361610.KS (Sk Ie Technology Co.): to be deleted from MSCI Korea Index

      • -2.5% 600309.CH (Wanhua Chemical Group): reports H1 net income attributable CNY8.17B, (5%) vs year-ago CNY8.57B

      • -2.5% 9147.JP (Nippon Express Holdings): reports H1 operating income ¥19.22B vs guidance ¥34.00B and year-ago ¥40.38B; reports June revenue (1.9%) y/y

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Japan July

        • CGPI +3.0% y/y vs consensus +3.1% and +2.9% in prior month

      • Australia

        • Q2 wage price index +0.8% q/q vs consensus +0.9% and +0.8% in Q1

          • Wage price index +4.1% y/y vs consensus +4.0% and +4.1% in Q1

        • August Westpac-MI consumer sentiment index 85.0 vs 82.7 in July

        • July NAB business confidence +1 vs revised +3 in June

          • Business conditions +6 vs +4 in June

      • Singapore

        • Final Q2 GDP +2.9% y/y vs preliminary +2.9% and +3.0% in prior quarter

          • GDP +0.4% q/q vs preliminary +0.4% and revised +0.4% in prior quarter

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 1,207.51 or +3.45% to 36232.51

      • Hang Seng: 62.41 or +0.36% to 17174.06

      • Shanghai Composite: 9.74 or +0.34% to 2867.95

      • Shenzhen Composite: 7.78 or +0.50% to 1554.35

      • ASX200: 13.10 or +0.17% to 7826.80

      • KOSPI: 3.20 or +0.12% to 2621.50

      • SENSEX: (346.10) or (0.43%) to 79302.82

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.64 or +0.44% to 147.8420

      • $-KRW: (0.96) or (0.07%) to 1369.3500

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.32% to 0.6608

      • $-INR: +0.02 or +0.02% to 83.9648

      • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.05%) to 7.1711

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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