Aug 12 ,2024
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed mixed to higher. Greece +1.1% and Norway +1.0% lead outperformers, whilst Denmark (2.1%) and France (0.3%) lead underperformers.
No change in market narrative. Fed Governor Bowman signaled caution about supporting rate cut due to above-target inflation. Officials have pushed back on notion of an intermeeting rate cut. Soft-landing narrative has gained traction in recent sessions following outsized reaction to soft payrolls data. Also talk of dip buying from a broad range of funds and corporate buyback activity has picked up. In addition, positioning much cleaner following recent drawdown and passive inflows remain strong. Attention to shift to key data this week. US CPI and retail sales due. In the UK, labor market data tomorrow and CPI on Wednesday.
In geopolitical news, US is sending additional forces to Middle East ahead of anticipated Iranian attack on Israel. Moscow said Ukraine troops have advanced 30km inside Russia, as offensive in Kursk entered a sixth day. Ukrainian President Zelensky directly acknowledged attack for the first time in a weekend address.
Quiet macro calendar in Europe and limited headlines. BoE's most hawkish member Mann said wage growth still a concern for inflation. Survey from CIPD showed UK employers expect to raise wages by slowest rate in two years over the coming year.
On the reporting front, DACH names kicked off the session, including Hannover Re (HNR1.GR), Salzgitter(SZG.GR), EnergieKontor (EKT.GR), Aryzta (ARYN.SW), Hypoport (HYQ.GR) and q.beyond (QYB.GR). Elsewhere, Stellantis (STLAM.IM) is rumoured to lay off up to 2,450 workers at Warren plant, whilst Borr Drilling (BORR.NO) issued its Q2 reprort; also, Heathrow (FER.SM) issued Jul traffic numbers. In Denmark, Vestas Wind Systems (VWS.DC) reports prelim Q2 earnings and narrows FY24 outlook revenue to €16.5B -17.5B from €16B-18B, and EBIT margin before special items to 4-5 % from 4-6% based on adjustments to planned costs in Service segment .
In M&A news, Bharti Televentures UK has entered into a binding agreement with Altice UK to acquire c.9.99% stake of BT (BT.A.LN) capital imminently with the balance c.14.51% of BT's share capital to be acquired following receipt of applicable regulatory clearances; in another deal, Esker (ALESK.FP) confirmed it is in discussions with Bridgepoint regarding a possible offer and Reuters reported that Thyssenkrupp (TKA.GR) steel division must be restructured to fund investment needs with its own earnings.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's calendar (see - Europe Week Ahead: 12-Aug to 16-Aug attached) Sparebanken Vest (SVEG.NO)Genuit Group (GEN.LN),Basilea Pharmaceutica (BSLN.SW), Tecan Group (TECN.SW), Komax Holding (KOMN.SW), Swissquote Group (SQN.SW)Pandora (PNDORA.DC), H+H International (HH.DC), ISS (ISS.DC)Porsche Automobil Holding (PAH3.GR), Henkel (HEN3.GR), Wacker Neuson (WAC.GR), and Vitesco Technologies Group (VTSC.GR) will be among other names to update investors, whilst the macro-calendar releases will include Germany Aug ZEW survey, UK Jul claimant count change, Jun unemployment rate, Spain Jul final CPI, Sweden Jul unemployment rate.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Telecom +0.66%, Basic Resources +0.66%, Energy+0.65%, Media +0.51%, Utilities +0.45%, Insurance +0.43%, Financial Svcs +0.43%, Technology +0.28%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.20%, Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores (0.01%),
Underperformers:
Real Estate (0.87%), Health Care (0.83%), Chemicals (0.63%), Travel & Leisure (0.61%), Construct & Mtls (0.47%), Autos & Parts (0.37%), Food, Beverage and Tobacco (0.28%), Consumer Products and Services (0.16%), Retail (0.12%),
Macro/Peripheral markets:
Geopolitics
Putin says Russia will expel Ukrainian forces from border region - Reuters
Rouble plunges after Ukraine takes Russian territory - The Telegraph
Israel prepares for likely retaliatory attack by Iran as tensions mount - The Guardian
Central Banks
EU
European gas traders shun Ukraine storage after Russian attacks - FT
UK
Pay per mile road tax 'on Treasury agenda' as electric cars take over - The Telegraph
France
France's 'beautiful dream' fades as Games give way to political deadlock - Reuters
Germany
CDU candidate Redmann makes defense a top issue - Handelsblatt
Difficult order situation continues to weigh on the self-employed, according to Ifo survey - Handelsblatt
Real estate prices stabilize - two metropolises stand out - Handelsblatt
Poland
Greece
Unemployment at 15-year low - ekathimerini
Lighter social security load next year - ekathimerini
Company news:
Trading Higher:
+43.8% HYL.BB (Hyloris Pharmaceuticals €4.25, +1.70) -- further positive clinical study results for Valacyclovir Oral Suspension
+9.3% MILDEF.SS (MilDef Group NT$75.00, +6.30) -- Dagens Industri out with buy recommendation
+7.5% BT.A.LN (BT Group £1.39, +0.10) -- Bharti Global to acquire interest in c.24.5% of BT Group from Altice UK
+4.7% HNR1.GR (Hannover Re €227.30, +10.20) -- Q2 earnings
+4.4% HYQ.GR (Hypoport €265.80, +10.80) -- final H1 earnings
+3.8% ARB.LN (Argo Blockchain £0.10, -0.00) -- updates on Loan Repayment
+3.6% ALESK.FP (Esker €226.20, +8.00) -- confirms it is in discussions with Bridgepoint regarding a possible offe
+2.9% BESI.NA (BE Semiconductor Industries €114.60, +3.20) -- Stifel upgrade
+2.7% HSS.LN (HSS Hire Group £0.07, -0.00) -- new interim CFO
+2.5% BWY.LN (Bellway £27.96, +0.68) -- Peel Hunt upgrade
Trading Lower:
-55.9% SAS.SS (SAS SEK0.00, -0.01) -- announces that the last day of trading in its existing common shares on Nasdaq Stockholm, Nasdaq Copenhagen and Oslo Børs
-14.8% TIG.LN (Team Internet Group £1.80, -0.28) -- H1 earnings
-11.9% XBRANE.SS (Xbrane Biopharma SEK0.17, -0.02) -- initiates process to out-license both Xdivane and XB003 for purposes of ensuring financing until envisioned positive operational cash-flow in Q2 2025
-7.8% VWS.DC (Vestas Wind Systems DKK0.00, -12.80) -- prelim Q2 earnings; narrows FY24 outlook
-5.2% QBY.GR (q.beyond €0.88, -0.04) -- Q2 earnings
-4.3% JD.LN (JD Sports Fashion £1.21, -0.05) -- Deutsche Numis downgrade
-3.2% ARYN.SW (Aryzta CHF1.60, -0.05) -- H1 earnings
-1.8% JDEP.NA (JDE Peet's €20.36, -0.38) -- Interim CEO and Chairman of the board will step down
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Austria: Semperit (SEM.AV)
Benelux: TKH Group (TWEKA.NA), EVS Broadcast Equipment (EVS.BB)
Germany: Porsche Automobil Holding (PAH3.GR), Henkel (HEN3.GR), Wacker Neuson (WAC.GR), Vitesco Technologies Group (VTSC.GR), INDUS Holding (INH.GR), init innovation in traffic systems (IXX.GR), NEXUS (NXU.GR), Medios (ILM1.GR), NORMA Group (NOEJ.GR), Voltabox (VBX.GR), thyssenkrupp nucera (NCH2.GR), Bilfinger (GBF.GR), Brenntag (BNR.GR), HelloFresh (HFG.GR), secunet Security Networks (YSN.GR), TAG Immobilien (TEG.GR), HomeToGo (HTG.GR), GESCO (GSC1.GR), STEMMER IMAGING (S9I.GR), CANCOM (COK.GR)
France: Valneva (VLA.FP)
Nordics: Pandora (PNDORA.DC), H+H International (HH.DC), ISS (ISS.DC), Moberg Pharma (MOB.SS), MedCap (MCAP.SS), Calliditas Therapeutics (CALTX.SS), Awardit (AWRD.SS), Olvi (OLVAS.FH), Siili Solutions (SIILI.FH), Mandatum (MANTA.FH), Ponsse (PON1V.FH), Sparebanken Vest (SVEG.NO), Nordic Mining (NOM.NO)
Switzerland: Basilea Pharmaceutica (BSLN.SW), Tecan Group (TECN.SW), Komax Holding (KOMN.SW), Swissquote Group (SQN.SW), PolyPeptide Group (PPGN.SW)
UK: Genuit Group (GEN.LN), Synthomer (SYNT.LN), Dowlais Group (DWL.LN), Just Group (JUST.LN), Georgia Capital (CGEO.LN)
Trading Update: Gem Diamonds (GEMD.LN)
Traffic: Fraport (FRA.GR), Flughafen Zurich (FHZN.SW)
CMD/events: Sparebanken Vest (SVEG.NO)
Other: Kantar latest UK grocery market share figures for the 12 weeks ending 4 August 2024
Data:
Economics:
Denmark Jul CPI +1.1% y/y vs consensus +1.3% and prior +1.8%; +1.1%% m/m vs consensus +0.1% and prior 0.0%
Portugal Jul Final CPI +2.5% y/y vs preliminary +2.5%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Sep 24): +$1.36 or +1.77% to $78.20
€-$ +0.0013 or +0.12% to 1.0932
£-$ +0.0012 or +0.10% to 1.2775
€-£ +0.0002 to 0.8558
S&P 500 (0.04%)
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +6.17%
DAX: +5.82%
CAC: (3.88%)
MIB: +5.19%
Stoxx 600: +4.19%
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