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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Hang Seng +0.13%, Shanghai Composite (0.14%), Kospi +1.15% as of 04:10 ET

Aug 12 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities ended mixed in a quiet session Monday. Mainland China indexes dipped into the close and Hong Kong traded near the flatline all day in listless trading. Gains for South Korea, Taiwan and Australia, losses in Singapore. India volatile on fresh Adani report but higher for now. Japan closed for a holiday. US futures edging higher, Europe seeing gains at the open. US dollar unchanged, yen notably weaker on former BOJ board member comments on rates, yuan also weakened. Treasuries unchanged, JGB yields higher, CGB yields sharply higher after more intervention from Beijing. Oil contracts and precious metals higher, base metals mixed.

    • A quiet day in Asia with few catalysts around to change the cautious mood and as Japan remained closed. Notably low volumes in China's equity markets with focus on the bond markets where CGBs yields rose another 5-6 bps at one point as Beijing stepped up efforts to control runaway prices. The PBOC said it would increase bond trading, while Bloomberg sources said at least four Chinese brokerages had cut back CGB trading last week with one source saying it had come "with guidance" from authorities. State banks also seen selling 10Y and 30Y notes last week amid reports several brokers had been asked to probe their trading activities.

    • Yen weakened again and Japan equity futures bounced after former BOJ board member Sakurai said he didn't think the BOJ would hike again this year. South Korean exports up 17% y/y in first 10 days of August with chip shipments up 42%. Malaysia construction output grew more than 20% y/y, adding to the string of strong economic data from Malaysia in recent months.

    • Kaisa Group's (1638.HK) Hong Kong winding up order was postponed for a month to give the company more time to finalize a debt restructuring agreement. PetroChina (601857.CH) and Shell said they will expand the Surat coal seam gas project in Queensland to ease energy shortfalls in Australia. BHP (BHP.AU), Rio Tinto (RIO.AU) and Qantas (QAN.AU) are to invest up to $53M in an Australian carbon credit fund. Macau authorities will tighten casino regulations and criminalize unlicensed money exchanges, hitting shares at Galaxy Entertainment (27.HK) and Sands China (1928.HK) among others. Adani Enterprises (512599.IN), Adani Energy Solutions (539254.IN), and Adani Total Gas (542066.IN) among the stocks to fall sharply following fresh accusations by Hindenburg Research over the impartiality of SEBI's chief Madhabi Buch into its probe into Adani Group companies.

  • Digest:

    • China bond yields rise as Beijing's fight against bond bulls intensifies:

      • Bloomberg citing people familiar with the matter reported that at least four Chinese brokerages are cutting back trading of CGBs since last week. Most firms called it voluntary action, though one person said change came after authorities' guidance. China 10Y government bonds extending recent declines with benchmark yield headed for biggest single-day gain since February, rising as much as five bp to 2.25% Monday and following gain of about seven bp last week (Bloomberg). Came after Beijing ramping up fights against bond bulls, targeting fund management companies to rural lenders. PBOC said in Q2 policy report late Friday that wealth management products based on bonds were exposed to interest-rate risk and could lead to losses if yields rise sharply. Recall CGBs have rallied this year amid strong demand for haven assets amid sluggish economy and monetary easing expectations. Meanwhile Reuters noted some investors said bond bull run still has legs, citing still-weak economy, deflationary pressures and low risk appetite. Separately, Bloomberg added PBOC also said it's studying plan on how to "reasonably" narrow interest rate corridor.

    • Ex-BOJ board member Sakurai doesn't believe there will be another rate hike this year:

      • In a Bloomberg interview, former BOJ board member Sakurai said he doesn't believe BOJ will be able to hike rates again in 2024 and it's a toss-up whether they will be in position to tighten again by next March. Sakurai favored wait-and-see approach regarding rates, citing volatility and limited prospects of rapid economic recovery in Japan. His remarks fit with sharp slide in market-implied expectations of another rate increase this year following huge volatility in aftermath of July's rate hike (futures recently pricing in ~31% chance of another rate hike this year compared to more than 60% week earlier). Dovish repricing followed Deputy Governor Uchida's speech last week dismissing idea of hiking rates when markets are unstable. However, economists still anticipate another rate increase this year when volatility ebbs and as long as economy and inflation continue to track BOJ's outlook. BOJ's communications have come in for criticism including both Governor Ueda's hawkish post-meeting press conference and Uchida's tonal pivot a week later (Bloomberg). Parliamentary committee meeting will be held on Tuesday to decide when Ueda should appear before lawmakers to discuss policy and market volatility.

    • Mixed views on whether yen carry unwind has run its course:

      • Yen carry unwind that helped fuel recent market meltdown still driving debate whether it has largely petered out or has more room to run. Extent of leverage used to fund carry trade a key concern with TS Lombard estimating ~$1.1T has financed the trade since end-2022 (Bloomberg). Strategists mixed on outlook with JP Morgan estimating three quarters of global carry trades have now reversed and Citigroup believing markets have seen worst of it. BNY saw carry unwind continuing with yen still trading well above estimated fair value towards 100-per dollar (Bloomberg). Catalysts behind yen melt-up remain in place, namely pickup in Fed rate cut bets and economists sticking to expectations for another BOJ rate hike by year-end. However, Goldman Sachs anticipates slow move higher in USDJPY, a noting its constructive outlook for US economy and pair's downside overshoot. Added that in event of imminent US recession, BOJ would also be expected to make dovish policy adjustments. All this notwithstanding potential for more bouts of yen appreciation if equities weaken and remaining carry trades unwind further.

    • SEBI chief denies conflict of interest accusation from Hindenburg:

      • Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) chief Madhabi Buch on Sunday denied conflict of interest accusations made by Hindenburg Research, in latest trade of accusations between US hedge fund and regulator (BusinessStandard). Hindenburg said whistleblower documents showed SEBI's chair, Madhabi Buch and her husband, had stakes in same 'obscure' offshore funds Hindenburg alleged Vinod Adani, brother of Gauram Adani, also had investments in and allegedly used for money siphoning scheme. Also criticized SEBI for delays in Adani investigation, questioned SEBI's impartiality. SEBI and Buch responded in separate statements Sunday denying 'baseless allegations and insinuations' by Hindenburg. In July, Hindenburg criticized SEBI for inaction over Adani, while SEBI this weekend said it had completed 23 of 24 investigations into Adani, added Buch had recused herself from matters involving potential conflict of interest (Bloomberg). Hindenburg immediately hit back on Buch and SEBI denials, saying responses merely raised fresh questions over Buch's conduct and ownership of funds (BusinessStandard).

    • Japan market valuations improve following sell-off, as retail investors maintain the faith:

      • More discussion about how Japan equity sell-off has brought valuations down from frothy levels with TOPIX forward P/E down to 13x compared to S&P 500's 20x (Bloomberg). 2024 winners among those that have fared worst with Japan banking index down 16% since end-June. MSCI Japan Semiconductor index has fallen 25% over same period, taking its forward P/E to 21x from 35x earlier this year. Positioning less stretched with put/call ratio down to near lowest in around 6.5 years. Also signs of dip buying by retail investors with Nikkeiciting TSE data showing net JPY481.8B of inflows between 29-Jul and 2-Aug, little changed from prior week. Nomura also noted retail investors directed funds into domestic and foreign mutual funds during 5-Aug stockmarket meltdown and 6-Aug rebound. JP Morgan retained overweight stance on equities and backed dip buying, pushing back against notion Japan will underperform in H2, citing factors such as positive earnings momentum and corporate reform traction (ramp in buybacks). That said, JP Morgan and UBS both recently downgraded their Nikkei and TOPIX year-end targets amid yen appreciation headwinds and US recession risk.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +11.6% 036460.KS (Korea Gas): reports Q2 operating profit KRW465.72B vs year-ago KRW205.03B

      • +6.8% 2382.TT (Quanta Computer): Q2 EPS NT$3.92 vs FactSet NT$2.80

      • +5.3% 6415.TT (Silergy): reports July revenue NT$1.63B, +43.8% y/y

      • +3.6% 2618.TT (EVA Airways): reports Q2 EPS NT$1.44 vs FactSet NT$1.04

      • +2.0% 068270.KS (Celltrion): receives US FDA approval for global phase 3 study of Keytruda biosimilar CT-P51

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -11.7% BHK.SP (SIIC Environment Holdings): reports Q2 net income attributable CNY195.2M, (14%) vs year-ago CNY227.3M

      • -6.1% 272.HK (Shui On Land): guides H1 net income attributable CNY50-100M vs year-ago CNY618M

      • -6.1% 1638.HK (Kaisa Group Holdings): winding-up petition reportedly adjourned to 9-Sep

      • -4.4% 27.HK (Galaxy Entertainment Group): Macau reportedly tightens casino regulations to criminalize unlicensed money exchange

      • -2.0% 533096.IN (Adani Power): Hindenburg Research publishes report alleging that SEBI's chairperson had stake in obscure offshore entities used in Adani money siphoning scandal; SEBI chief Madhabi Buch reportedly denies conflict of interest accusations made by Hindenburg

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • No economic data today

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: Closed

      • Hang Seng: 21.42 or +0.13% to 17111.65

      • Shanghai Composite: (3.99) or (0.14%) to 2858.20

      • Shenzhen Composite: (7.36) or (0.47%) to 1546.57

      • ASX200: 36.00 or +0.46% to 7813.70

      • KOSPI: 29.87 or +1.15% to 2618.30

      • SENSEX: 189.32 or +0.24% to 79895.23

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.68 or +0.47% to 147.3190

      • $-KRW: +3.54 or +0.26% to 1368.6000

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.30% to 0.6596

      • $-INR: +0.00 or +0.00% to 83.9568

      • $-CNY: +0.01 or +0.16% to 7.1783

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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