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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei (0.74%), Hang Seng +0.08%, Shanghai Composite +0.00% as of 04:10 ET

Aug 08 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • Asia equities ended mixed Thursday in a relatively quiet session. Greater China stocks were flat with Hong Kong a few points higher but mainland boards traded near the flatline. Taiwan sank again and South Korea also saw a sharp fall. Japan equities volatile again and finished lower, Australia down, India also seeing more losses but off its lows, Southeast Asia mostly higher. US futures lower, Europe opened with losses. US dollar lower, AUD rallying on hawkish RBA comments, yen and yuan also stronger, rupee at over two-month high after RBI maintained stance. Treasury yields lower across tenors. Crude futures slightly lower, precious metals flat, base metals flat. Cryptocurrencies notably higher.

    • Asia equities enjoying a relatively quiet day than of late with no clear direction or unexpected newsflow to offer new guidance. Bond markets more volatile following several central bank movements: July BOJ Summary of Opinions showed members backed more rate hikes if economy and inflation track forecasts while Deputy Governor Uchida's remarks Wednesday on volatility were largely dismissed by analysts; JGB yields moved lower and the yen strengthened.

    • RBA governor Bullock said the bank will not hesitate to hike rates again and ruled out rate cuts for the next six months but, as Australia sovereign yields slipped a few points, the AUD strengthened. The RBI kept its base rate unchanged as expected but also held its 'withdrawal of accommodation' steady against some expectations of a move to 'neutral'; IGB yields rose from two-year lows and the rupee hit a more than two-month high against the dollar. Elsewhere in the region, Philippine Q2 GDP growth was 6.3%, accelerating from 5.8% in Q1 but missed analyst forecasts.

    • Sony Group (6758.JP) said it has ruled out a renewed offer for Paramount. Black Sesame International (2522.HK) slumped more than 25% on its market debut in Hong Kong as recent market turmoil hurt investor appetite for risk. BHP Group (BHP.AU) is considering the sale of its gold and copper assets in Brazil. Toyota Motor (7203.JP) has cut its annual global vehicle output target by 5% to around 9.8M units. Adani Enterprises (512599.IN) is mulling a INR100B ($1.2B) through a share sale via QIPs.

  • Digest:

    • BOJ members indicate support for further rate hikes, stress need for gradual approach:

      • BOJ July Summary of Opinions showed members downplayed significance of last week's rate hike in noting economic situation has become more conducive to tightening with upside risks to prices. Noted real rates still at most negative in 25 years and viewed 0.25% policy rate as still highly accommodative, though future policy changes needed to be conducted carefully. One said further policy adjustment will be necessary if inflation rises in-line with BOJ's outlook, and another noted rates should rise to neutral rate (at least 1%) toward end of second half of FY25 assuming price stability target is achieved. Members noted tight labor market and rise in import prices likely to keep upward pressure on inflation and likelihood of achieving price stability target has increased further with upside risks requiring attention. Members acknowledged some economic weakness though while private consumption has not been so strong it is likely to remain resilient. On JGBs, members said taper should proceed in straightforward manner though BOJ should monitor market developments.

    • Economists don't read too much into BOJ Deputy Governor Uchida's 'dovish' remarks:

      • BOJ Deputy Governor Uchida's speech Wednesday ruling out further tightening when markets are unstable were perceived as dovish and attributed for fueling further yen weakness. However, also thoughts his speech aimed more at conveying a dovish message for markets than signaling policy backtrack. UBS still anticipates BOJ to hike rates by 25 bp to 0.50% in October assuming US avoids hard landing, there is no significant deterioration in Japan business sentiment and expected Fed rate cut doesn't trigger volatility. Similarly, Nomura didn't believe Uchida's speech heralded change in BOJ's reaction function, arguing central bank likely to consider another rate hike when markets stabilize assuming Japan's economy and inflation tracks in-line with outlook. Pointed to Uchida's belief US will achieve soft landing and his confidence in sustainability of Japan wage growth. Bloomberg survey prior to Uchida's speech showed 65% of economists still expect BOJ rate hike by year-end, little changed from prior poll on 1-Aug. About 41% predicted December move and 21% favored October.

    • Japan 30Y bond auction tails following weak 10Y sale:

      • Japan auctioned ¥900B ($6.1B) in 30Y bonds Thursday, drawing mixed results with average bid-cover ratio of 3.47 - highest in two months (Bloomberg). However, auction tailed most in three months. Comes after Tuesday's auction of ¥2.6T in 10Y bonds met similarly tepid demand with longest tail since 2003 (Bloomberg). That auction also resulted in an average bid-cover ratio that was lowest since January. Yields have whipsawed in period leading up to and following BOJ's rate hike and taper announcement, though generally remain lower from week ago amid pickup in risk aversion. JGB curve has bull steepened since BOJ meeting with superlongs underperforming. Spread between 10Y and 30Y yields has widened further ~10 bp since end of June to 126 bp. BOJ taper schedule has focused more attention on supply and duration risk. Summary of Opinions showed one member likened taper to issuing new JGBs in that it will increase supply and possibly change structure of market, necessitating importance of monitoring developments and investor behavior.

    • RBI holds base interest rate unchanged at 6.5%:

      • RBI held its base repurchase interest rate unchanged at 6.5% Thursday, as widely expected, and kept relatively hawkish 'withdrawal of accommodation' stance against some forecasts it would set stage for future cuts by changing this to 'neutral'. Marginal standing facility kept at 6.75%, standard deposit facility held at 6.25%. MPC voted 4-2 to keep rates and stance unchanged; also kept GDP growth at 7.2%, unchanged from previous forecast. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said MPC decided monetary policy should remain focused on inflation to support sustained economic growth. June CPI rate was 5.1% on elevated food prices and is expected to pick up again in September following summer lull, bank forecast FY rate at 4.5% assuming normal monsoon. Admitted inflation was 'stubborn' but policy must be kept deflationary. Added domestic growth resilient supported by steady urban consumption (BusinessStandard).

    • Weighing outlook for Japan equities:

      • Sharp pullback in Japanese equities has stirred debate whether stocks primed for rebound or volatility has further to lay out. JP Morgan noted recent selloff priced in USDJPY of 140 (vs current 146), implying 10% EPS erosion that did not explain market's 25% decline from peak. Extent of fall in valuations more typically associated with global recession. However, Morgan Stanley MUFG noted TOPIX P/E fell to 11.5 at one stage, below its bear scenario and recession average 12.9x. JP Morgan saw P/E averaging 16x once Japan deflation is definitively over. Strategists also cited equity market support from Japan corporate reforms, positive real wage growth and potential GPIF rebalancing flows. At same time, equities remain vulnerable to yen volatility amid uncertainty around when yen carry unwind will end and how much is left to be unwound. UBS estimated $200B of $500B carry positions accumulated since 2011 have been unwound in recent weeks (FT). US recession seen as a major risk to with JP Morgan eyeing Nikkei low of 25K (vs current 34,700) based on past trends when Japan stock declines mirrored those in US.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +22.6% 6920.JP (Lasertec): reports FY revenue ¥213.51B vs FactSet ¥204.24B, operating income ¥81.38B vs FactSet ¥74.84B

      • +8.9% 7202.JP (Isuzu Motors): reports Q1 revenue ¥747.95B vs FactSet ¥746.58B, operating income ¥76.91B vs FactSet ¥71.65B

      • +8.1% 9843.JP (Nitori Holdings): reports Q1 revenue ¥232.82B vs FactSet ¥230.68B, operating income ¥34.49B vs FactSet ¥33.83B

      • +7.2% 2502.JP (Asahi Group Holdings): reports H1 revenue ¥1.379T, +10% vs year-ago ¥1.253T; to launch up to 6.0M-share buyback for up to ¥30.00B; to conduct 3-for-1 stock split

      • +6.9% 2357.TT (ASUSTek Computer): reports Q2 EPS NT$15.84 vs year-ago NT$3.48/share

      • +3.4% 006800.KS (Mirae Asset Securities Co.): reports Q2 operating profit KRW273.29B vs FactSet KRW232.35B

      • +0.4% 035720.KS (Kakao): reports Q2 operating profit KRW133.96B vs StreetAccount KRW138.29B

      • +0.1% S68.SP (Singapore Exchange): reports FY adjusted net income SG$525.9M vs FactSet SG$531.8M

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -15.5% 4911.JP (Shiseido): reports H1 core operating income ¥19.27B, (31%) vs year-ago ¥28.04B

      • -9.3% 220.HK (Uni-President China Holdings): reports H1 revenue CNY15.45B vs StreetAccount CNY15.48B

      • -4.1% 9984.JP (SoftBank Group): reports Q1 Vision Funds income (¥204.30B) vs year-ago ¥61.04B

      • -2.7% 7733.JP (Olympus): reports Q1 revenue ¥234.82B vs StreetAccount ¥230.55B, operating income ¥27.48B vs StreetAccount ¥30.03B; discloses transfer price of Orthopedic business to Polaris Capital group at ~¥3.7B

      • -2.0% 7203.JP (Toyota Motor): reportedly cuts FY (Jan-Dec) global production target to 9.8M units from 10.3M units

      • -0.7% D05.SP (DBS Group Holdings): DBS Group Head of Institutional Banking Tan Su Shan to succeed Piyush Gupta as CEO when he retires at next AGM

      • -0.1% 6758.JP (Sony): reports Q1 revenue ¥3.012T vs StreetAccount ¥2.745T, operating income ¥279.10B vs StreetAccount ¥274.28B

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Japan June

        • Current account +¥1.5T versus +¥2.9T in prior month

      • New Zealand Q3

        • 2-year inflation expectations 2.03% vs 2.33% in Q2

        • 1-year inflation expectations 2.40% vs 2.73% in Q2

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: (258.47) or (0.74%) to 34831.15

      • Hang Seng: 13.97 or +0.08% to 16891.83

      • Shanghai Composite: 0.07 or +0.00% to 2869.90

      • Shenzhen Composite: (1.84) or (0.12%) to 1564.26

      • ASX200: (17.80) or (0.23%) to 7682.00

      • KOSPI: (11.68) or (0.45%) to 2556.73

      • SENSEX: (393.68) or (0.50%) to 79074.33

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: (0.90) or (0.61%) to 145.7890

      • $-KRW: (2.62) or (0.19%) to 1373.8700

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.51% to 0.6552

      • $-INR: (0.00) or (0.00%) to 83.9564

      • $-CNY: (0.02) or (0.32%) to 7.1580

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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