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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +10.23%, Hang Seng (0.31%), Shanghai Composite +0.23% as of 04:10 ET

Aug 06 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities rebounded Tuesday in some called "a turbocharged turnaround" from market rout yesterday. Japan's Nikkei jumped more than 10% in largest single-day rise while Topix rose 9.3%. Early futures trading was interrupted by more circuit breakers in both benchmarks. Taiex and Kospi also notably higher amid broader rebound in tech/semis with TSMC (2330.TT) up 8%. ASX and Mainland China markets saw milder gains, while Hang Seng in red. India trading slightly higher. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures higher. Treasury and JGB yields reversing higher. Yen lower against dollar. Oil pared some gains after rebounding from seven-month low. Gold slightly higher. Bitcoin inching up.

    • Markets reconsidered severity of worsening of market sentiments with some calm has started to return. Risk-on session attributed to oversold conditions following Monday's historic drop in several Asian markets. Better-than-expected US ISM services appeared to ease hard landing concerns fueled by last week's soft ISM manufacturing and US payrolls data. Growth risks have risen, but economists do not consider recession as base case. Some analysts attributed equity market meltdown more to a wind-down of carry trades than a shift in US economic outlook. Dip-buying also was tabbed to cheaper valuations with Morgan Stanley bullish on TSMC following share price pullback. Still some said respite might be temporary as VIX index remains at highest level since 2020 after spiking most on record on Monday with macro data and Fed response to be scrutinized.

    • On the macro front, RBA left cash rate unchanged as expected. Australia's central bank also retained hawkish-leaning bias amid sticky domestic inflation pressures. Japan real wage growth turned positive for first time since Mar-2022 with data taking on added prominence as this year's shunto wage hikes begin to filter through. However, consumption remains weak with Japan household spending contracting by more than expected. Japanese Prime Minister Kishida urged calm and senior finance officials along with BOJ officials convened emergency meeting to discuss global market rout. South Korea's economic and financial authorities also said country's stock market overreacted to declines on Wall Street. Philippines inflation rose more than expected in July and might prompt BSP to hold off easing rates next week.

    • Chinese tech firms including Huawei and Baidu (9888.HK) as well as startups are stockpiling HBM semiconductors from Samsung Electronics (005930.KS), anticipating further US chip restrictions on China. China Evergrande (3333.HK) said its liquidators were seeking to recover about $6B from seven defendants and added they had obtained injunctions against three of them, including founder Hui Ka Yan. Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone (532921.IN) plans to take over more seaports in Middle East, Africa and southeast Asia to boost India's trade status.

  • Digest:

    • Global market rout more about deleveraging than US recession fears, but unwinding may not be done yet:

      • Reuters discussed analyst takeaways from the recent equity market meltdown, suggesting price action was more reflective of unwinding carry trades rather than a dramatic shift in the US economic outlook. Argued that headline effects from weaker than expected US payrolls alone does not explain such volatility. Instead, they pointed to a major unwind in carry trades, particularly in yen. Article noted that while precise data on investor positions are elusive, analysts suspected crowded positions in US tech stocks, funded by carry trades. Cited BIS data showing cross-border yen borrowing ballooned $742B since 2021-end. According to latest CFTC figures, net short positions in yen were pared to $6.01B to mark the smallest since January and down from April's seven-year high $14.53B. Much of the blame pointed at hedge funds. Goldman Sachs notes indicated gross leverage among Goldman prime brokerage accounts declined in July and July, though remained near five-year highs. Also, hedge fund short positions last week outnumbered longs by 3.3-to-1. Analysts suggested there was room for further short-term pain as positions are unwound, but the market shake-up would be limited. Reuters separately noted views that unwinding activity may yet continue given the scale of positions.

    • RBA on hold, Governor Bullock downplays prospects of near-term rate cut:

      • RBA left cash rate unchanged at 4.35% as expected. Central bank retained mildly hawkish bias in not ruling anything in or out with respect to rates. In press conference, Governor Bullock added board considered a rate hike and that near-term rate cut not on agenda. Added likelihood of rate hike will increase if disinflation progress is too slow. Policy will need to be sufficiently restrictive until board is confident inflation is moving sustainably towards target range. Data reinforced need to remain vigilant to upside risks to CPI with underlying inflation still too high. RBA upgraded CPI forecasts with trimmed mean inflation returning to 2-3% range by end-2025 and 2.5% midpoint by Jun-2026, a slower return to target than forecast in May. High unit labor costs, and stickiness in services prices posed upside risks to inflation with gap between aggregate demand and supply higher than previously thought. RBA upgraded GDP growth forecasts, citing ramp in government spending and consumption growth. Assessed labor market tighter than previously thought. Market volatility was discussed though did not play role in board's thinking.

    • US ISM service index beat provides Japan market reprieve:

      • Japan equities rebounded sharply Tuesday with Nikkei up 10.23% and Topix up 9.11%. Benchmarks gapped sharply higher on the open, preceded by a pre-open circuit breaker triggered in Nikkei futures, followed by Topix futures. Buying momentum was led by foreign investors on rebound plays. All sectors snapped back positive, led by nearly 15% gains in marine transportation. Bank recovery was limited to ~4% following 17% losses yesterday. Transportation equipment rose 13% on the back of weaker yen. Broad themes mostly in line with benchmarks with growth outperforming value. Nikkei VIX collapsed back though remains elevated above 51. Reuters noted Nikkei implied vol remains at a stratospheric 70%. Market reversal was broadly attributed to stronger than expected US ISM services index overnight. Yen pared yesterday's strength, bringing USD/JPY back into the upper 145 level after an overnight low of 141.69. Reversal trades favored dollar, though exporters were said to be buying yen on dip. JGB futures also fell with sharp curve steepening, taking leads from stabilization in US Treasuries. JGB 10-year auction came in well below expectations with the longest tail since July 2003, following yesterday' trepidation toward buying conviction.

    • Asia policymakers seek to calm market anxiety:

      • Reuters reported Japan authorities rushing to assuage concerns about the wild swings in financial markets. Prime Minister Kishida's comments to reporters in Hiroshima urged caution, saying it was important to make calm judgements about the market and the government will monitor market moves with sense of urgency. Added the government will continue to work on economic and fiscal management while working closely with the BOJ, echoed by Finance Minister Suzuki. Nikkei reported MOF, FSA and BOJ officials convened for a joint meeting, reaching agreement there is no change to Japan's economic recovery outlook, while repeating Kishida's remarks. In South Korea, Yonhap reported financial authorities said they are ready to take action against extremely volatile market jitters urging investors to remain calm and cool-headed given the country's sound economic fundamentals. In a joint meeting attended by Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok, BOK Governor Rhee Chang-yong and Financial Services Commission chief Kim Byoung-hwan, attendees shared the view that Monday's market crash was excessive, put down to multiple factors such as the US slowdown, yen carry trades and Middle East conflict.

    • BOJ under scrutiny for rate hike timing, may pause further moves:

      • Bloomberg reported BOJ facing criticism for executing a rate hike last week that contributed to subsequent global market turmoil. Added developments likely put plans for further hikes on ice. Cited thoughts BOJ contradicted itself by raising rates despite weakness in economic data (which was the main case against a move last week). Article noted the equity selloff prompted analysts to start thinking the hike came too early and many are changing expectations. Added there is some speculation that political pressure was a factor, recalling two senior LDP officials publicly seemed to endorse policy normalization to address yen weakness. Reuters looked ahead to upcoming board member public appearances. Deputy Governor Uchida -- seen as a mastermind of the rate hike path and communication -- is scheduled to deliver a speech Wednesday in Hakodate city. Former board member Takahide Kiuchi suggested Uchida will likely aim to soothe market anxiety. Government source indicated Governor Ueda likely to attend a special parliament session later this month to discuss the market rout. Senior officials from the ruling and main opposition parties agreed on Tuesday to convene the lower house financial affairs committee session, where Ueda will be asked to speak.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +15.2% 6920.JP (Lasertec): issues additional statement against Scorpion Capital's allegation: no improper practices found by special investigation committee

      • +14.7% 7267.JP (Honda Motor): Q1 operating profit reportedly to exceed ¥450B, +20% y/y

      • +6.6% 377300.KS (kakaopay): reports Q2 revenue KRW185.50B vs FactSet KRW180.63B

      • +5.3% 4507.JP (Shionogi & Co.): new drug application for cefiderocol accepted in China for review

      • +4.3% 3008.TT (LARGAN Precision): reports July revenue NT$5.43B, +55.0% y/y

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -9.1% 2802.JP (Ajinomoto): reports Q1 revenue ¥365.51B vs StreetAccount ¥366.50B

      • -4.4% 7012.JP (Kawasaki Heavy Industries): reports Q1 business profit ¥16.94B vs FactSet ¥18.53B

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Japan

        • June

          • Household spending (1.4%) y/y vs consensus (0.9%) and (1.8%) in prior month

            • Spending +0.1% m/m vs (0.3%) in prior month

          • Average nominal wages +4.5% y/y vs consensus +2.4% and revised +2.0% in prior month

            • Real wages +1.1% y/y vs consensus (0.9%) and revised (1.3%) in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 3,217.04 or +10.23% to 34675.46

      • Hang Seng: (51.02) or (0.31%) to 16647.34

      • Shanghai Composite: 6.59 or +0.23% to 2867.28

      • Shenzhen Composite: 18.21 or +1.18% to 1567.03

      • ASX200: 31.00 or +0.41% to 7680.60

      • KOSPI: 80.60 or +3.30% to 2522.15

      • SENSEX: 287.35 or +0.36% to 79046.75

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.58 or +0.40% to 144.7480

      • $-KRW: +7.38 or +0.54% to 1375.5600

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.05% to 0.6499

      • $-INR: (0.16) or (0.20%) to 83.9361

      • $-CNY: +0.02 or +0.25% to 7.1467

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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