Aug 05 ,2024
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed sharply lower but near the highest levels of the session. Tech, consumer products and chemicals outperformed. Utilities, energy and real estate were the biggest decliners. Asia equity markets also posted deep losses with Japan off more than (12%) and Kospi and Taiwan more than (8%) lower. US equity futures under pressure with S&P off (2.5%) and Nasdaq down (2.8%).
Negative sentiment carries over from last week's trade, as growth concerns intensified in wake of soft US payrolls data, and BOJ's rate hike fueled yen-driven volatility. Associated ramp in Fed rate cut bets played into 'bad news is bad news' narrative. Negative AI takeaways from US earnings weighed on tech. Middle East tensions another overhang amid Iranian reprisal threat. US election uncertainty, systematic selling pressure, and negative seasonality some of the other overhangs.
Back in Europe, Think tank report warns UK government will have to raise £27B in public investment to draw in private sector capital and boost growth. Data from Morgan McKinley shows 25% drop in financial services vacancies. Attention also on UK government's response to weekend of civil unrest. Germany's Lindner warns of constitutional risks in draft budget.
On European macro calendar, Eurozone final composite PMIs little changed from flash at five-month low. In other news, Ifo chief Fuest said equity market adjustment was long overdue because of the level of interest rates.
On the corporate front, attention on M&A news with Woodside Energy Group (WDS.AU) acquiring OCI Clean Ammonia Holding B.V. (OCI.NA) for $2.35B in cash whilst - in the banking sector - Societe Generale (GLE.FP) sold its SG Kleinwort Hambros and Societe Generale Private Banking Suisse units for ~€900M and also signed an agreement with Bred Banque Populaire to sell its subsidiary in Madagascar; still in France, L'Oreal (OR.FP) acquired a 10% stake in Galderma Group AG (GALD.SW) from Sunshine SwissCo AG, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and Auba Investment Pte. Ltd. for a non-disclosed amount
In other developments, following last week rumours about a capital increase for an acquisition, RWE (RWE.GR) management stated that that it has "no intention to raise equity"; in the UK, in light of rising geopolitical risks and financial market uncertainty at this time, Sidara announced that it does not intend to make a firm offer for Wood (WG.LN), sending shares of the latter down (37%) at the open. On the reporting front, Infineon Technologies (IFX.GR), Aurubis (NDA.GR) and Washtec (WSU.GR) were among few other DACH names to update investors, whilst in the Netherlands, PostNL (PNL.NA) reported Q2
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Technology (0.92%), Consumer Products and Services (1.17%), Chemicals (1.44%), Construct & Mtls (1.75%), Ind Goods & Svcs (1.86%), Travel & Leisure (1.93%), Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores (2.11%)
Underperformers:
Utilities (3.56%), Energy(3.46%), Real Estate (3.14%), Insurance (2.67%), Basic Resources (2.59%), Telecom (2.47%), Autos & Parts (2.42%), Banks (2.34%), Food, Beverage and Tobacco (2.33%), Health Care (2.33%), Media (2.30%), Retail (2.28%)
Macro:
EU
UK
Chancellor Reeves embarks on US-Canada trip to promote UK as stable investment destination - FT
Starmer convenes emergency meeting as anti-immigrant protests rock UK - Bloomberg, FT
Wealthy individuals consider relocation amid rising taxes in UK - Bloomberg
Emergency COBRA meeting today; Farage 'appalled' by violence - says army should be considered - Sky
FTSE plunges as recession fears trigger global sell-off - The Telegraph
UK PM slams Elon Musk for saying far-right riots 'inevitable' - politico
Greece
Government aiming for fall reboot - ekathimerini
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+13.1% OCI.NA (OCI NV €24.64, +2.83) -- Woodside Energy Group (WDS.AU) to acquire OCI Clean Ammonia Holding B.V. for $2.35B cash
+12.5% BOLS.NA (Lucas Bols €18.00, +2.00) -- shares to delist from Euronext Amsterdam on 2-Sep
+1.3% GALD.SW (Galderma Group CHF67.85, +0.89) -- L'Oreal (OR.FP) acquires 10% stake
Notable Decliners
-35.6% WG.LN (John Wood Group £1.27, -0.70) -- Sidara does not intend to make a firm offer for Wood in light of rising geopolitical risks and financial market uncertainty at this time
-18.2% UTDI.GR (United Internet €16.07, -3.58) -- prelim H1 earnings; lowers FY guidance
-13.4% CKN.LN (Clarkson £37.85, -5.85) -- H1 earnings
-13.2% 1U1.GR (1&1 AG €12.74, -1.94) -- prelim H1 earnings; lowers FY guidance
-12.3% NDA.GR (Aurubis €60.35, -8.50) -- 9M earnings
-12.2% IMMNOV.SS (Immunovia SEK2.41, -0.34) -- Q2 earnings
-12.0% ADN1.GR (adesso €78.30, -10.70) -- prelim Q2 earnings; lowers FY guidance
-9.5% ARB.LN (Argo Blockchain £0.09, -0.01) -- Jun operational update
-8.7% A1OS.GR (All for One Group €49.50, -4.70) -- Q3 earnings
-7.4% GMAB.DC (Genmab DKK1,775.50, -141.00) -- to assume sole responsibility for continued development and potential commercialization of acasunlimab; not expected to impact 2024 financial guidance
-7.4% GABR.DC (Gabriel Holding DKK250.00, -20.00) -- to fully or partly divest the FurnMaster business
-7.1% ALPHA.GA (Alpha Services & Holdings €1.51, -0.12) -- amends share buyback program
-6.5% SNR.LN (Senior £1.47, -0.10) -- H1 earnings
-6.0% MARR.IM (Marr €10.42, -0.66) -- Kepler Cheuvreux downgrade
-5.5% INRN.SW (Interroll Holding CHF2,490.00, -145.00) -- BNP Paribas Exane downgrade
-5.4% SVT.LN (Severn Trent £25.10, -1.43) -- Barclays downgrade
-5.0% EZE.SM (Grupo Ezentis €0.17, -0.01) -- convertible bond
-4.9% UU.LN (United Utilities Group £10.08, -0.52) -- Barclays downgrade
-4.7% PNN.LN (Pennon Group £6.01, -0.30) -- Barclays downgrade
-4.2% ENAV.IM (ENAV €3.73, -0.16) -- H1 earnings
-4.0% VOD.LN (Vodafone Group £0.69, -0.03) -- UBS downgrade
-3.7% GLEN.LN (Glencore £3.90, -0.15) -- notes Switzerland has closed its criminal investigation against the company with a summary penalty order and an abandonment order
-3.3% BGN.IM (Banca Generali €37.26, -1.26) -- Jul total net inflows
-3.1% ANIM.IM (Anima Holding SpA €4.48, -0.14) -- July net inflows
-2.4% LDG.LN (Logistics Development Group £0.10, -0.00) -- Cyrus Capital Partners, L.P. discloses an 8.93% stake
-2.1% PNL.NA (PostNL €1.28, -0.03) -- Q2 earnings
-1.9% IAG.LN (International Consolidated Airlines Group £1.64, -0.03) -- International Consolidated Airlines Group looking harder at TAP Air Portugal - Telegraph
-1.8% AF.FP (Air France-KLM €7.80, -0.14)
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: Nyxoah (NYXH.BB)
Germany: Bayer (BAYN.GR), Uniper (UN01.GR), Schaeffler (SHA.GR), Rational (RAA.GR), Deutsche Wohnen (DWNI.GR), Zalando (ZAL.GR), Carl Zeiss Meditec (AFX.GR), Fraport AG Frankfurt Airport Services Worldwide (FRA.GR), Biotest (BIO.GR), Northern Data (BN2.GR), Adtran Networks (ADV.GR), New Work (NWO.GR)
Nordics: NTG Nordic Transport Group (NTG.DC), eQ (EQV1V.FH), Scanfil (SCANFL.FH), Detection Technology (DETEC.FH), NoHo Partners (NOHO.FH)
Southern Europe: Banco BPM (BAMI.IM), BPER Banca (BPE.IM), Banca Popolare di Sondrio (BPSO.IM), FILA - Fabbrica Italiana Lapis ed Affini (FILA.IM), Public Power Corp. (PPC.GA)
Switzerland: Adecco (ADEN.SW), Galenica (GALE.SW), OC Oerlikon Corp. (OERL.SW), Ascom (ASCN.SW)
UK: InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG.LN), Rotork (ROR.LN), abrdn (ABDN.LN), Travis Perkins (TPK.LN), International Workplace Group (IWG.LN), Domino's Pizza (DOM.LN), Keller (KLR.LN), SIG (SHI.LN), Zotefoams (ZTF.LN), Hargreaves Services (HSP.LN)
Trading Update: YouGov (YOU.LN),
Traffic: Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS.NO)
Data:
Economics:
Services PMI Jul
Eurozone 51.9 vs preliminary 51.9
Germany 52.5 vs preliminary 52.0
France 50.1 vs preliminary 50.7
Italy 51.7 vs consensus 53.0 and prior 53.7
UK 52.5 vs preliminary 52.4
Sweden 53.8 vs consensus 51.6 and prior revised to 52.2 from 51.8
Spain 53.9 vs consensus 56.2 and prior 56.8
Spain Jun Industrial Production +0.6% y/y vs consensus +1.0% and prior +0.4%
Denmark Jun Manufacturing Production +0.1% m/m vs consensus +2.9% and prior revised (6.8%) from (6.0%)
Eurozone
Aug Sentix Investor Confidence (13.9) vs consensus (5.5) and prior (7.3)
Jun PPI (3.2%) y/y vs consensus (3.3%) and prior revised (4.1%) from (4.2%)
Markets:
WTI Crude (Sep 24): ($0.48) or (0.65%) to $73.04
€-$ +0.0047 or +0.43% to 1.0970
£-$ (0.0043) or (0.34%) to 1.2765
€-£ +0.0068 to 0.8595
S&P 500 (2.16%)
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +3.56%
DAX: +3.51%
CAC: (5.23%)
MIB: +3.00%
Stoxx 600: +1.68%
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