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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei (12.40%), Hang Seng (1.46%), Shanghai Composite (1.54%) as of 04:10 ET

Aug 05 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities in sharp sell-off Monday. Nikkei posted biggest single-day percentage drop since Black Monday in October 1987. Circuit breakers were triggered in both futures benchmarks (twice in the afternoon for Nikkei). Index in technical bear market. Kospi was down 8.8% and triggered circuit breaker. Taiex shed 8.4% in worst selloff since 1967. A slew of chipmakers plummeted in South Korea and Taiwan. ASX saw worst session in more than two years. Greater China markets also closed lower but outperformed regional peers. US futures tumble. Haven demand fueled rallies in JGBs and Treasuries. Yen extended rally against dollar to highest since early January. Yuan also rose on unwinding of carry trades. Crude lower and gold slightly higher while magnitude much less compared with equity market movements. Another big drop in Bitcoin, down to its lowest since late February.

    • Global markets selloff fueled by weak US payrolls data as growth concerns intensified. BOJ's rate hike fueled yen-driven volatility in Japan. Associated ramp in Fed rate cut bets played into 'bad news is bad news' narrative while soft landing assumption gets questioned. Negative AI takeaways from US earnings weighed on tech as investors fretting about elevated valuations from tech rally. Berkshire's slash of its Apple holdings by almost half weighed on sentiment. Middle East tensions another overhang amid Iranian reprisal threat. US election uncertainty, systematic selling pressure, and negative seasonality some of the other overhangs.

    • In other macro developments, China laid out 20-point plan to boost consumer services following last week's Politburo pledges to boost consumption. Caixin services PMI grew at slightly quicker pace in July, but export expansion slowed to 11-month low. Japan services activity rebounded, though overseas orders slowed and cost pressures persisted. RBA previews note expectations for hawkish hold on Tuesday. Nothing incremental in June BOJ minutes.

    • SoftBank (9984.JP) shares posted biggest single-day fall since going public in 1998. TSMC (2330.TT) also posted record daily decline. Itochu (8001.JP) will buy back as much as JPY150B ($1.1B) of its shares and made tender off for rest of sportswear company Descente. Evergrande New Energy Vehicle (708.HK) said its two subsidiaries have started bankruptcy procedures.

  • Digest:

    • Japan stock market enters bear market territory, exacerbated by yen strength:

      • Japan equity selloff accelerated on Monday with Bloomberg noting a 24% retracement in Topix from record highs reached last month. Nikkei noted Nikkei 225 also in bear market territory after logging its biggest absolute losses on record, while percentage drop was still second behind Black Monday. Circuit breakers were triggered in index futures -- Topix in the morning session and twice for Nikkei 225 in the afternoon. Selling pressure remained broadly based. All TSE sectors down sharply, ranging from 6% in air transportation to as much as 17% in insurance/banks. Mitsubishi UFJ (8306.JP) was down an intraday record 21%. Value lagged growth, blue chips weaker than small caps. Nikkei VIX spiked to an intraday high 85.4, blowing past the previous closing peak of 52.78 in March 2020. Fallout tracked last Friday's market predictions of continuation in selling pressure if US payrolls disappointed. Nikkei cited acceleration in risk aversion amid perceived threat of US recession and unrelenting yen strength. On FX, yen dipped into the 142 range vs dollar for the first time seven months amid a flurry of stop-losses on the break of 143, quickly surpassing the recent February peak of 145.90. Attention turns to the January high of 140.80 as the next key level.

    • Markets scaling wall of worry:

      • Bearish sentiment continues to sweep through asset markets. Growth concerns have intensified in wake of last week's soft US July payrolls data and weak global PMIs (Citi Economic Surprise index remains near lowest since mid-2022, while corporate commentary has offered downbeat assessment of consumer spending. Associated ramp in Fed rate cut bets and yield curve 'disinversion' driving pickup in recession/hard landing talk. Hawkish BOJ rate hike and big yen rally weighing heavily on Japan equities, but also contributing to wider risk aversion. Berkshire's swelling cash position viewed as negative signal for equities with cash pile hitting record $276.9B after Buffett cut Apple stake by almost 50% in Q2, part of broader share sell-down that quarter. Disappointing AI takeaways from recent US tech earnings extending recent selloff in growth/momentum names. Middle East tensions another overhang amid concerns of a bigger Iranian retaliation against Israel than April's missile barrage that was mostly intercepted.

    • Big bond market rally:

      • Concerns about material slowdown in economic growth driving big rally in bond markets. BOJ rate hike reverberations contributing to risk aversion, fueling demand for haven assets. Treasury 2Y and 10Y yields down around 63 bp and 56 bp respectively since 24-July to lowest since mid-2023, narrowing spread to just eight bp. Bond rally accompanied by spike in volatility with BofA MOVE index up ~30% from mid-July lows to highest since mid-April. Uninverting yield curve tying into discussions about recession signaling with Goldman Sachs raising its US recession risk to 25% from 15% (Bloomberg). Markets anticipating more aggressive Fed easing cycle. Futures pricing in five Fed rate cuts by end-2024, implying potential 50 bp cuts over final three meetings of the year (Bloomberg). Economists at Cit and JP Morgan also among those predicting 50 bp cuts in September and November. Similar volatility playing out elsewhere with Sep-2024 JGB futures contract temporarily triggered circuit breaker (Bloomberg). JGB 10Y yield extended its post-BOJ drop to more than 20 bp, reaching lowest level since mid-April.

    • Yuan traded at premium to PBOC fix for first time since November:

      • Offshore yuan strengthening and traded at premium to PBOC fix for first time since November while traders rushed to unwind carry trade(Bloomberg). Yuan jumped to as high as 7.1125 per dollar on Monday, compared with PBOC's fixing of 7.1345, before paring earlier gains to trade about 0.4% stronger both onshore and offshore. Rally came as risk appetite retreated after weaker-than-expected US payrolls data which fueled fears of recession, prompting traders to walk away from borrowing yuan and yen cheaply and buying higher-yielding currencies. Noted yen rose to seven-month highs against dollar as US slowdown fears carry over (Reuters). Mizuho strategist expected broad EM Asian currencies rally if aggressive rate cuts by Fed are materialized. Bank of China analysts said yuan's rise was mainly due to dollar index weakening and Chinese currency's positive correlation with yen. Rebound in yuan will also likely give PBOC more room to ease monetary policy with economists surveyed by Bloomberg in end-July expected one more rate cut in Q1-2025.

    • China Caixin services activity continues to expand in July:

      • Caixin services PMI was 52.1 in July, beating forecasts of 51.4 and higher from 51.2 in June and extending period of expansion since Jan-2023. Incoming new business increased at solid pace, supported by improvements in demand and expansion of service offerings. Meanwhile export business expanded at slowest pace in 11-month. Rate of employment growth rose at fastest in nearly a year while services firms lowered level of outstanding business. Average input prices continued to rise while selling prices were unchanged. Business confidence was at second lowest since Mar-2020. Caixin Composite PMI dropped to 51.2 from 52.8 in June and was the least pronounced pace in past nine months, dragged by weak manufacturing PMI, which fell to 49.8 in July from last month's 51.8 and was in contraction for first time since Nov-2023. Caixin Insight Group economist noted prices at composite level remained weak, further squeezing company profits while pointed out that insufficient domestic demand and weak confidence were most prominent issues.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +10% 002414.CH (Wuhan Guide Infrared): wins bid for major equipment system project; counterparty undisclosed; expects major impact on revenue, profit

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -17.3% 6479.JP (Minebea Mitsumi): reports Q1 revenue ¥355.45B vs FactSet ¥340.87B, operating income ¥20.03B vs FactSet ¥20.39B [

      • -16.8% 2914.JP (Japan Tobacco): reports Q2 net income attributable ¥147.9B vs FactSet ¥150.86B

      • -16.5% 7974.JP (Nintendo): reports Q1 revenue ¥246.64B vs FactSet ¥300.05B, operating profit ¥54.51B vs FactSet ¥90.52B

      • -9% 520.HK (Xiabuxiabu Catering Management (China) Holdings): guides H1 net income attributable (CNY0.26-0.28B) vs year-ago CNY2.12B

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Japan

        • July final services PMI 53.7 vs preliminary 53.9 and 49.4 in prior month

          • Composite PMI 52.5 vs preliminary 52.6 and 49.7 in prior month

      • China

        • July Caixin services PMI 52.1 vs consensus 51.4 and 51.2 in prior month

          • Caixin Composite PMI 51.2 vs 52.8 in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: (4,451.28) or (12.40%) to 31458.42

      • Hang Seng: (247.15) or (1.46%) to 16698.36

      • Shanghai Composite: (44.64) or (1.54%) to 2860.70

      • Shenzhen Composite: (32.97) or (2.08%) to 1548.83

      • ASX200: (293.60) or (3.70%) to 7649.60

      • KOSPI: (234.64) or (8.77%) to 2441.55

      • SENSEX: (2,364.93) or (2.92%) to 78617.02

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: (3.60) or (2.45%) to 142.9860

      • $-KRW: +7.25 or +0.53% to 1365.4300

      • A$-$: (0.01) or (0.95%) to 0.6449

      • $-INR: +0.06 or +0.07% to 83.8417

      • $-CNY: (0.02) or (0.33%) to 7.1358

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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