Aug 02 ,2024
Synopsis
European equity markets are set to open lower, extending yesterday's sell-off, amid Asian equities lower Friday. Bonds firmer, leaving US 10-year yield down 3 bps at 3.96%. Dollar softer versus yen, euro, and Aussie, firmer against sterling. Gold above $2,500/oz.
Growth worries weighing on equity markets after softer-than-expected US ISM report. Market now fully pricing for three Fed rate cuts by year-end, including first move in September. US nonfarm payrolls the focus after US growth concerns intensified following sharp contraction in ISM manufacturing index. Negative economic surprises adding to anecdotal observations in corporate commentary about weakening consumer health.
Big sell-off in Japan while heavy losses in tech space weighing on Korea and Taiwan benchmarks. ASX also under pressure. Hang Seng leading China market declines with mainland indexes seeing milder declines. Nasdaq futures down over 1% afterhours. Crude pushing up from overnight lows with gold and copper also nudging higher.
Deteriorating macro backdrop has led markets to fully price in three Fed rate cuts in 2024. US Tech names also in focus with Apple (AAPL) +0.7% in postmarket trade revenue and iPhone sales topped expectations. Intel (INTC) shares (19%) as it suspended dividend and announced cost saving plan following big earnings and guidance miss. Amazon (AMZN) (8%) revenue guidance midpoint below consensus with capex ramp weighing on cloud margins.
In central banks, BOE's Pill and Shortall at National Agency briefing at 12:15BST on Monetary Policy Report.
European Macro data releases out today include Switzerland Jul manufacturing PMI, CPI, Spain Jul unemployment change, Italy Jun industrial production, retail sales
In earnings news, yesterday after the close AXA (CS.FP) reported H1 earnings and confirmed the management confidence to deliver on the main financial targets of AXA's "Unlock the Future" plan. Also in france this morning ENGIE (ENGI.FP) reported Q2 earnings and raised FY24 NRIgs guidance. In Italy, Salvatore Ferragamo (SFER.IM), Pirelli (PIRC.IM) and Reply (REY.IM) issued H1 earnings reports.
In the Benelux, IMCD (IMCD.NA) and bpost (BPOST.BB) updated investros with their latest numbers. Elsewhere, International Consolidated Airlines Group (IAG.LN) and Erste Group Bank (EBS.AV) reported Q2 earnings with results ahead of exceptions. Also due to report earnings today includes ENGIE (ENGI.FP), Maurel & Prom (MAU.FP), Virgin Money UK (VMUK.LN), Buzzi (BZU.IM) and AIB Group (A5G.ID).
In M&A, AXA (CS.FP) announced that it has entered into an exclusive negotiation to sell its asset manager AXA Investment Managers to BNP Paribas (BNP.FP) for cash proceeds of €5.1B. The combination of AXA Investment Managers and BNP Paribas would create a leading European asset manager, with total assets under management of €1.5T.
Politics/Macro/World News
UK public's 1-year inflation outlook broadly stable at 2.7% - Citi/YouGov
German Budget Deal at Risk as Advisers Raise Legal Concerns - Bloomberg
UK Retail Store Traffic Falls as Shoppers Opt for Holidays - Bloomberg
Top company news
Earnings/updates
France
CS.FP (AXA) -- reports H1 net income €4B vs FactSet €4B [3 est, €4-4B]
BLV.FP (Believe) -- reports Q2 EBIT (€7.0M) vs year-ago €1.0M
ALATA.FP (Atari, Inc.) -- reports FY net income (€13.5M) vs year-ago (€9.5M)
ENGI.FP (ENGIE) -- reports Q2 net recurring income (NRIgs) €3.80B vs consensus €3.33B; raises FY24 NRIgs guidance
Southern Europe
SFER.IM (Salvatore Ferragamo) -- reports H1 net income €5.8M vs StreetAccount €4.7M
PIRC.IM (Pirelli & C.) -- reports Q2 net income €130.9M vs StreetAccount €127M
REY.IM (Reply) -- reports Q2 pretax income €73.2M vs FactSet €67.4M
SFL.IM (Safilo Group) -- reports Q2 adjusted EBITDA €25.6M vs FactSet €25.4M
ICOS.IM (Intercos) -- reports H1 adjusted net income €22.9M vs year-ago €26.9M
ALPHA.GA (Alpha Services & Holdings) -- reports Q2 adjusted net income €214.4M vs FactSet €177.3M; raises FY guidance around income and recurring profitability
Benelux
IMCD.NA (IMCD) -- reports H1 net income €141M, (8%) vs year-ago €153M
BPOST.BB (bpost) -- reports Q2 adjusted net income €39.3M vs FactSet €27.3M
BRNL.NA (Brunel International) -- reports Q2 EPS €0.12 vs year-ago €0.12
Nordics
AKTIA.FH (Aktia Bank) -- reports Q2 comparable EPS €0.34 vs FactSet €0.34
DACHs
INRN.SW (Interroll Holding) -- reports H1 net income CHF23.9M vs FactSet CHF32.5M
MOBN.SW (Mobimo Holding) -- reports H1 EPS CHF6.59 ex-items vs year-ago CHF5.95; confident that it will be able to reach FY targets
MXHN.GR (MAX Automation) -- reports H1 EBITDA €15.6M vs year-ago €20.2M
EBS.AV (Erste Group Bank) -- reports Q2 net income attributable €846M vs consensus €773.6M; upgrades FY outlook
UK
IAG.LN (International Consolidated Airlines Group) -- reports Q2 adjusted net income €908M vs FactSet €803.1M
Also due to report today include:
Earnings:
Benelux: Brunel International (BRNL.NA)
France: Maurel & Prom (MAU.FP)
Italy: Buzzi (BZU.IM), ERG (ETG.IM), MARR (MARR,IM), Technogym (TGYM.IM), SIT (SIT.IM), Cairo Communication (CAI.IM), Banca IFIS (IF.IM), Tinexta (TNXT.IM), Reply (REY.IM), EuroGroup Laminations (EGLA.IM)
Nordics: Millicom International Cellular (TIGO.SS),
UK/Ireland: Intertek Group (ITRK.LN), Capita (CPI.LN), AIB Group (A5G.ID)
Trading Update: Virgin Money UK (VMUK.LN), Equasens Group (EQS.FP), Moscow Exchange MICEX-RTS (MOEX.RU)
M&A
CS.FP (AXA) -- enters into an exclusive negotiation to sell Investment Managers to BNP Paribas
CS.FP (AXA) -- acquires Nobis Group for €423M plus earnout
MYGN (Myriad Genetics) -- completes sale of EndoPredict business to Eurobio Scientific
BG (Bunge Global) -- EU Commission clears Bunge's acquisition of Viterra subject to conditions
VIR (Vir Biotechnology) -- announces exclusive worldwide license agreement with Sanofi for multiple clinical-stage T-cell engagers
SIKA.SW (Sika Group) -- acquires Vinaldom S.A.S for an undisclosed sum
IAG.LN (International Consolidated Airlines Group) -- releases presentation material in connection with Q2 earnings
FDJ.FP (La Francaise des Jeux) -- FDJ sells its Sporting Solutions Services subsidiary to the Betsson Group; terms not disclosed
YPSN.SW (Ypsomed Holding) -- and MTD complete the sale of the pen needle and BGM business
TWEKA.NA (TKH Group) -- TKH acquires Liberty Robotics; price not disclosed
NCC.LN (NCC Group) -- PLC disposes of Fox Crypto B.V. for total consideration of c.€77M
THEP.FP (Thermador Groupe) -- completes Compteur-energie.com acquisition
LOUP.FP (LDC) -- completes acquisition of Indykpol SA
ALKAL.FP (Kalray) -- announces termination of negotiations as part of its planned merger with Israeli company Pliops
BUMA, MACH Energy and Golden Energy and Resources line up as potential bidders for Anglo American's Queensland coal mines - Australian Financial Review
Healthcare
GLPG.NA (Galapagos) -- BridGene Biosciences expands strategic collaboration with Galapagos to develop selective oral SMARCA2 PROTAC in precision oncology
ADAP (Adaptimmune Therapeutics) -- FDA approves Adaptimmune Therapeutics' TECELRA (afamitresgene autoleucel) cell therapy for a solid tumor
ALCLS.FP (Cellectis SA) -- Cellectis confirms FDA Orphan Drug designation to CLLS52 (alemtuzumab) in ALL
Other
IAG.LN (International Consolidated Airlines Group) -- IAG terminates acquisition of Air Europa; continues to hold its 20% minority equity stake
IAG.LN (International Consolidated Airlines Group) -- IAG announces gross interim dividend of €0.030 per share
Italy Jul new passenger car registrations 124,806 units, +4.7% y/y -- UNRAE
Key rating changes
Upgrades
RACE.IM (Ferrari) -- to overweight from equal weight at Barclays
Downgrades
GLE.FP (Societe Generale) -- to neutral from buy at Citi
HMSO.LN (Hammerson) -- to neutral from outperform at BNP Paribas Exane
Data
Nikkei (5.44%) to 36052.08
Hang Seng (2.44%) to 16882.07
Shanghai Composite (0.58%) to 2915.26
S&P futures (46.0) vs prior close of 5480.3
€-$ +0.0012 or +0.11% to 1.0802
$-¥ (0.34) or (0.23%) to 149.03
€-¥ (0.22) or (0.14%) to 160.95
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