Aug 02 ,2024
Synopsis:
European equity markets ended sharply lower Friday, with most regional benchmark indices down ~(1%) to ~(3%). Follows Thursday's sell-off, taking Stoxx Europe 600 weekly loss to (2.9%). EU Tech sector (6%) biggest decliner Friday and EU Banks saw continued pressure. Risk off continuing amid recent pickup in growth worries. Big focus on softer US July jobs report ( nonfarm payrolls +114K m/m vs consensus +175K) along with some disappointing earnings takeaways from a number of the higher-profile US reporters (AMZN beat on AWS but Q3 OI guide light. INTC down big on miss, weaker guidance and dividend suspension. MCHP unexpectedly guided down). No cushion from increasingly dovish Fed view, with market pricing in an increasing volume of easing this year (and bets on a 50bp September cut spiking). Fits with recent narrative flip to "bad news is bad news". Some of that flip driven by concerns consumer spending slowdown broadening. US election uncertainty and geopolitical tensions some of the other overhangs on sentiment. WTI crude was down (3.7%).
Back in Europe, Utilities sector outperformed today as investors sought defensives. ENGIE (ENGI.FP) a notable sector gainer after it beat and raised guidance. In M&A action, Iberdrola agreed to acquire a majority stake (88%) in grid operator Electricity North-West for ~£2.1B. RWE (RWE.GR) shares however came under pressure following an unconfirmed report in Peakload that it is in talks to acquire a non-controlling stake in Calpine; analysts flagged concerns about potential financing and what price RWE would pay.
In other corporate developments today, IAG (IAG.LN) shares climbed. Given some recent weak results/warnings in the European airline space, IAG's Q2 release was seen as very reassuring. However, some note Q3 will be another test for the resilience of IAG's pricing. Analysts welcome reinstatement of IAG's dividend, and think it implies a good level of confidence in the airline's prospects. No major surprise from IAG walking away from acquiring remaining 80% of Air Europa; it is expected IAG will turn its attention to other consolidation opportunities in due course (mostly likely TAP). Elsewhere, Wizz Air (WIZZ.LN) and Ryanair Holdings (RYA.ID) released Jul passenger numbers.
The week ahead sees Norway's finance minister present the perspective report 2024, Germany's finance minister take part in citizens' dialogue, services PMIs from across the region, Germany Jun industrial production as well as earnings from the likes of Infineon (IFX.GR), Ahold Delhaize (AD.NA), Deutsche Telekom (DTE.GR), Generali (G.IM), Glencore (GLEN.LN), Novo Nordisk (NOVO.B.DC) and Siemens (SIE.GR).
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Utilities +0.36%, Food, Beverage and Tobacco +0.13%, Real Estate +0.11%, Telecom (0.23%), Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores (0.33%), Chemicals (1.38%), Autos & Parts (1.74%), Insurance (2.03%), Media (2.29%), Energy(2.49%), Consumer Products and Services (2.50%)
Underperformers:
Technology (6.05%), Financial Svcs (5.20%), Banks (4.27%), Retail (3.88%), Ind Goods & Svcs (3.83%), Travel & Leisure (3.71%), Construct & Mtls (3.61%), Basic Resources (3.05%)
Macro:
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+7.9% TRIN.LN (Trinity Exploration & Production £0.62, +0.05) -- directors withdrawal recommendation of the Touchstone offer; recommend Lease Operators 68.05p/share in cash offer
+6.7% IMCD.NA (IMCD €140.25, +8.75) -- H1 earnings
+4.9% TIGO.SS (Millicom International Cellular SEK276.00, +12.80) -- Atlas Luxco S.à r.l. increases offer price to $25.75/share (and per SDR)
+4.7% IAG.LN (International Consolidated Airlines Group £1.67, +0.07) -- Q2 earnings
+4.4% SHLTN.SW (SHL Telemedicine CHF3.79, +0.16) -- Chair to step down
+2.8% ENGI.FP (ENGIE €14.92, +0.40) -- Q2 earnings
+2.4% GSK.LN (GSK Plc £15.63, +0.37) -- FDA approves Jemperli plus chemo for all adults with primary advanced or recurrent endometrial cancer
+2.1% AKTIA.FH (Aktia Bank €9.41, +0.19) -- Q2 earnings
+1.8% ALKAL.FP (Kalray €8.10, +0.14) -- termination of negotiations as part of its planned merger with Israeli company Pliops
+1.6% IBE.SM (Iberdrola €0.00, +0.20) -- acquires an interest of ~ 88% in Electricity North West
+1.1% SFER.IM (Salvatore Ferragamo €7.99, +0.09) -- H1 earnings
Notable Decliners
-12.4% CPI.LN (Capita £0.17, -0.02) -- H1 earnings
-10.8% BRNL.NA (Brunel International €9.26, -1.12) -- Q2 earnings
-7.9% RWE.GR (RWE €0.00, -2.69) -- Peakload reported RWE is in advanced talks to acquire a non-controlling stake in Calpine
-7.2% INRN.SW (Interroll Holding CHF2,635.00, -205.00) -- H1 earnings
-6.9% SIKA.SW (Sika Group CHF248.40, -18.40) -- acquires Vinaldom
-6.2% KBC.BB (KBC Group €65.16, -4.28) -- completes €1.30B share buyback
-6.0% ALCLS.FP (Cellectis SA €1.88, -0.12) -- confirms FDA Orphan Drug designation to CLLS52 (alemtuzumab) in ALL
-5.9% GLE.FP (Societe Generale €20.54, -1.30) -- Citi downgrade
-5.8% GLPG.NA (Galapagos €23.50, -1.46) -- BridGene Biosciences expands strategic collaboration withcompany to develop selective oral SMARCA2 PROTAC in precision oncology;
-5.1% INH.GR (INDUS Holding €20.45, -1.10) -- Oddo downgrade
-4.9% LONN.SW (Lonza Group CHF558.40, -29.00) -- Equita downgrade
-4.1% AML.LN (Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings £1.46, -0.06) -- successful private debt placing
-4.1% TUI1.GR (TUI Group €5.56, -0.24) -- initiated underweight at Barclays
-3.9% ATCO.A.SS (Atlas Copco SEK175.35, -7.15) -- acquires Danmil A/S and AVT Services Pty
-3.9% SOI.FP (SOITEC €114.30, -4.60) -- US/Asia sympathy
-3.8% ALPHA.GA (Alpha Services & Holdings €1.63, -0.06) -- Q2 earnings
-3.6% CRL.IM (Carel Industries €15.74, -0.58) -- H1 earnings
-3.5% SCATC.NO (Scatec NOK86.85, -3.15) -- to sell part of its ownership in the Kalkbult, Linde, and Dreunberg solar power plants for $50M
-3.3% MAERSK.B.DC (Maersk DKK10,835.00, -365.00) -- Nordea downgrade
-3.3% BEAN.SW (BELIMO Holding CHF515.00, -17.50) -- Sifel downgrade
-2.7% FCT.IM (Fincantieri €4.95, -0.14) -- appoints Chairman
-2.2% WIZZ.LN (Wizz Air Holdings £14.48, -0.32) -- July traffic figures
EU companies reporting Monday:
Earnings:
Benelux: PostNL (PNL.NA)
DACHs: Infineon Technologies (IFX.GR), Aurubis (NDA.GR), WashTec (WSU.GR), Bertrandt (BDT.GR)
France: Coface (COFA.FP), Clariane (CLARI.FP)
Nordics: Coinshares International Ltd. (CS.SS)
Southern Europe: Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS.IM), Credito Emiliano (CE.IM), ENAV (ENAV.IM), BFF Bank (BFF.IM)
UK: Senior (SNR.LN)
Data:
Economics:
Switzerland Jul CPI +1.3% y/y vs consensus +1.3% and prior +1.3%
Jul Manufacturing PMI 43.5 vs consensus 43.8 and prior 43.9
France Jun Industrial Production +0.8% m/m vs consensus +1.0% and prior revised (2.2%) from (2.1%)
Spain Jul Unemployment Change (10.8K) vs consensus (17.4K) and prior (46.8K)
Italy
Jun Industrial Production (2.6%) y/y vs consensus +1.3% and prior (3.3%); +0.5% m/m vs consensus 0.0% and prior +0.5%
Jun Retail Sales (1.0%) y/y vs consensus (0.9%) and prior revised +0.5% from +0.4%; (0.2%) m/m vs consensus +0.2% and prior +0.4% x
Markets:
WTI Crude (Sep 24): ($2.81) or (3.68%) to $73.50
€-$ +0.0128 or +1.19% to 1.0918
£-$ +0.0062 or +0.49% to 1.2802
€-£ +0.0059 to 0.8528
S&P 500 (2.11%)
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +5.71%
DAX: +5.43%
CAC: (3.86%)
MIB: +5.49%
Stoxx 600: +3.94%
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