Aug 01 ,2024
Synopsis:
European indices ended sharply lower. Follows firmer close on Wednesday. Banks outsized decliner. Retail a notable outperformer. Real Estate, Health Care and Food&Beverage also held up.
BoE cut rates by 25 bps, as expected. Decision was a close call with a 5-4 split in favour of the move. Comments caution over cutting too much, too soon. The Fed held the benchmark rate, as expected, in a unanimous decision. Policy statement mostly unchanged, though Chair Powell's said in press conference September rate cut could be on table if inflation moves as expected, senses committee moving closer to rate cuts. Middle east tensions continue to rise with Iran's supreme leader issuing order for Iran to strike Israel directly following earlier killing of Hamas's leader.
On European macro front, UK Nationwide house price data a bit firmer than expected; Eurozone final manufacturing PMIs up slightly versus flash.
Amidst a busy earnings calendar, banks kicked off the session, with Societe Generale (GLE.FP), Credit Agricole (ACA.FP), Barclays (BARC.LN), ING Grope (INGA.NA) and Mediobanca (MB.IM) posting their most recent updates; in the DACH region, Volkswagen AG (VOW3.GR), BMW AG (BME.GR), DHL Group (DHL.GR), Daimler Truck (DTG.GR), Hugo Boss (BOSS.GR) and MTU Aero Engines (MTX.GR) were among few other names to report earnings whilst - in France - Worldine (WLN.FP), Veolia Environnement (VIE.FP), Arkema (AKE.FP), SES (SESG.FP), ATOS (ATO.FP) and Technip Energies (TE.FP) released their Q2/H1 numbers. In the UK, Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR.LN), Shell (SHEL.LN), London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG.LN), Melrose Industries (MRO.LN), Haleon (HLN.LN) and Wizz Air Holdings (WIZZ.LN) also reported. Elsewhere, Telecom Italia (TIT.IM) and Prysmian (PRY.IM) were the main Italian names to report, whilst in the Netherlands, Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABI.BB), ArcelorMittal (MT.NA), Aperam (APAM.NA) and Fugro (FUR.NA) updated investors before the open.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's EU econ-calendar, notable releases will include, amongst others, Italy Jun industrial production, retail sales, Spain Jul unemployment change and Switzerland Jul manufacturing PMI, CPI.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers
Retail +1.47%, Real Estate +0.91%, Health Care +0.56%, Food, Beverage and Tobacco +0.44%, Telecom +0.04%, Financial Svcs (0.00%), Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores (0.49%), Chemicals (0.93%), Oil&Gas(1.05%)
Underperformers
Banks (4.47%), Ind Goods & Svcs (2.25%), Basic Resources (2.10%), Media (1.95%), Technology (1.88%), Autos & Parts (1.71%), Insurance (1.65%), Construct & Mtls (1.49%), Travel & Leisure (1.43%), Consumer Products and Services (1.27%)
Macro:
Central banks:
Why the bank of England has finally cut rates - but might not rush to do it again -- Telegraph
UK:
Germany:
More German companies mull relocation due to high energy prices - survey -- Reuters
Italy:
Italy's 'other' lakes, home to Blue Flag beaches and refreshing temperatures -- Telegraph
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+93.8% IMMNOV.SS (Immunovia SEK2.84, +1.45) -- pancreatic cancer detection test accuracy increased to 85% with a specificity of 98% in detecting stage 1 and 2 PDAC
+34.9% ALERS.FP (Eurobio-Scientific €24.50, +6.35) -- consortium to file voluntary tender offer at price of €25.30 per share; H1 revenue
+29.0% ECIT.NO (ECIT AS NOK9.62, +2.16) -- prelim Q2 earnings; Olympus BidCo launched recommended voluntary offer of NOK 10 per share to shareholders of ECIT AS
+12.8% COA.LN (Coats Group £0.99, +0.12) -- H1 earnings
+11.8% BYW6.GR (BayWa €14.44, +1.54) -- BayWa's owners and creditor banks reach agreement in principle; Baywa to receive ~€400M partly as loan and partly as equity - Handelsblat
+11.8% GMS.LN (Gulf Marine Services £0.20, +0.02) -- dividend policy, confirms FY EBITDA guidance, agrees debt facility
+9.4% AYV.FP (Ayvens €6.72, +0.58) -- Q2 earnings
+8.6% FSM (Fluidra €22.56, +1.76) -- H1 earnings
+8.3% NXT.LN (Next £98.68, +7.56) -- trading update
+7.6% ONT.LN (Oxford Nanopore Technologies £1.33, +0.09) -- increases size of equity issue to £80M from £75M due to transaction being multiple times oversubscribed
+7.0% RR.LN (Rolls-Royce Holdings £4.99, +0.32) -- H1 earnings
+6.8% SN.LN (Smith & Nephew £12.11, +0.76) -- H1 earnings
+5.3% DWNI.GR (Deutsche Wohnen €19.30, +0.98) -- prelim H1 earnings
+5.3% FUM.LN (Futura Medical £0.37, +0.02) -- trading update
+5.1% BOSS.GR (Hugo Boss €38.90, +1.86) -- Q2 earnings
+4.6% NOD.NO (Nordic Semiconductor NOK140.80, +6.15) -- DnB Markets upgrade
+4.3% CLNX.SM (Cellnex Telecom €33.74, +1.38) -- H1 earnings
+4.0% LSEG.LN (London Stock Exchange Group £99.54, +3.82) -- H1 earnings
+4.0% APAM.NA (Aperam €26.46, +1.00) -- Q2 earnings
+2.4% VANQ.LN (Vanquis Banking Group £0.58, +0.01) -- H1 earnings
+2.4% VNA.GR (Vonovia €29.44, +0.67) -- H1 earnings
+1.9% PTSB.ID (Permanent TSB Group Holdings €1.59, +0.03) -- H1 earnings
+1.9% FAGR.BB (Fagron €19.46, +0.36) -- H1 earnings
+1.9% HPUR.NO (Hexagon Purus NOK9.73, +0.18) -- order
Notable Decliners
-24.3% XBRANE.SS (Xbrane Biopharma SEK0.19, -0.06) -- to regain full rights to BIIB801
-22.6% WIZZ.LN (Wizz Air Holdings £16.16, -4.33) -- Q1 earnings; lowers FY guidance
-15.3% WLN.FP (Worldline €8.91, -1.61) -- H1 earnings; lowers FY guidance
-12.5% MRO.LN (Melrose Industries £5.32, -0.74) -- H1 earnings
-11.8% VSVS.LN (Vesuvius £4.42, -0.57) -- H1 earnings
-10.2% SYENS.BB (Syensqo €75.56, -8.33) -- Q1 earnings
-10.0% SITOWS.FH (Sitowise Group €2.60, -0.29) -- prelim Q2 earnings
-9.7% SLN (Schroders £3.59, -0.38) -- H1 earnings
-9.1% MEL.SM (Melia Hotels International €6.62, -0.65) -- Q2 earnings
-9.0% GLE.FP (Societe Generale €22.08, -2.15) -- Q2 earnings
-8.6% PRY.IM (Prysmian €60.10, -5.44) -- H1 earnings
-8.6% DEZ.GR (Deutz AG €4.98, -0.46) -- completes acquisition of Rolls-Royce Power Systems; expects additional annual revenue of ~€300M and EBIT margin above the group's current margin
-8.4% PHARM.NA (Pharming Group €0.75, -0.07) -- Q2 earnings
-6.4% HDD.GR (Heidelberger Druckmaschinen €1.09, -0.07) -- Q1 earnings
-6.3% SRP.LN (Serco Group £1.84, -0.12) -- H1 earnings
-6.1% ATS.AV (AT & S Austria Technologie & Systemtechnik €18.86, -1.21) -- Q1 earnings
-5.7% TE.FP (Technip Energies €22.40, -1.34) -- Q2 earnings
-4.9% IVA.FP (Inventiva €2.15, -0.11) -- prelim H1 earnings; Portzamparc downgrade
-3.2% DTG.GR (Daimler Truck Holding $34.91, -1.14) -- Q2 earnings
-3.1% BMW.GR (Bayerische Motoren Werke €84.02, -2.62) -- Q2 earnings
-3.0% VIE.FP (Veolia Environnement €28.42, -0.87) -- H1 earnings
-2.5% LHA.GR (Deutsche Lufthansa €5.72, -0.14) -- SEB Group's subsidiary SEB Kort Bank completes the acquisition of AirPlus International from Lufthansa Group fro ~€450M
-2.4% MAIRE.IM (MAIRE €7.38, -0.18) -- H1 earnings
-2.1% ATO.FP (ATOS SE €0.98, -0.02) -- H1 earnings
-2.0% MAERSK.B.DC (Maersk DKK0.00, -230.00) -- prelim Q2
-1.6% SY1.GR (Symrise €115.30, -1.85) -- H1 earnings
-1.5% VLA.FP (Valneva €3.29, -0.05) -- strategic partnership to accelerate development of tetravalent Shigella vaccine candidate
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: IMCD (IMCD.NA), Brunel International (BRNL.NA), bpost (BPOST.BB)
DACHs: MAX Automation (MXHN.GR), Interroll Holding (INRN.SW), Mobimo Holding(MOBN.SW), Erste Group Bank (EBS.AV)
France: Axa (CS.FP), ENGIE (ENGI.FP), Maurel & Prom (MAU.FP)
Italy: Buzzi (BZU.IM), ERG (ETG.IM), MARR (MARR,IM), Technogym (TGYM.IM), SIT (SIT.IM), Cairo Communication (CAI.IM), Banca IFIS (IF.IM), Tinexta (TNXT.IM), Reply (REY.IM), EuroGroup Laminations (EGLA.IM)
Nordics: Millicom International Cellular (TIGO.SS), Aktia Bank (AKTIA.FH)
Southern Europe (other): Alpha Services & Holdings (ALPHA.GA)
UK/Ireland: International Consolidated Airlines Group (IAG.LN), Intertek Group (ITRK.LN), Capita (CPI.LN), AIB Group (A5G.ID)
Data:
Economics:
Eurozone
Jun Unemployment Rate 6.5% vs consensus 6.4% and prior 6.4%
Jul Manufacturing PMI 45.8 vs preliminary 45.6
Germany Jul Manufacturing PMI 43.2 vs preliminary 42.6
France Jul Manufacturing PMI 44.0 vs preliminary 44.1
UK Jul
Manufacturing PMI 52.1 vs preliminary 51.8
Nationwide House Prices +2.1% y/y vs consensus +1.8% and prior +1.5%
Italy
Jul Manufacturing PMI 47.4 vs consensus 46.1 and prior 45.7
Jun Unemployment Rate 7.0% vs consensus 6.8% and prior revised 6.9% from 6.8%
Spain Jul Manufacturing PMI 51.0 vs consensus 52.5 and prior 52.3
Markets:
WTI Crude (24-Sep): ($0.52) or (0.67%) to $77.39
€-$ (0.0038) or (0.35%) to 1.0788
£-$ (0.0085) or (0.66%) to 1.2772
€-£ +0.0025 to 0.8445
S&P 500 (0.99%)
Performance year-to-date:
FTSE 100: +7.11%
DAX: +7.95%
CAC: (2.29%)
MIB: +8.26%
Stoxx 600: +6.86%
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