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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei (2.49%), Hang Seng (0.23%), Shanghai Composite (0.22%) as of 04:10 ET

Aug 01 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities ended mixed Thursday. Nikkei and Topix finished sharply lower, unwinding most of yesterday's gains. Greater China was lower with the Main boards in Shanghai and Hong Kong modestly down. Strong gains in Taipei, Seoul and Sydney . India flat, Southeast Asia mostly higher ex Singapore, which is lower on a dip in its banks. US futures higher, Europe flat in early trades. US dollar volatile, yen sinking further from overnight losses before weakening back to the flatline, AUD lower. Treasury yields lower across tenors, JGBs mixed after 2Y yield hit 15-year highs. Crude higher, copper and iron ore off recent lows.

    • Asia markets continued to digest Wednesday's central bank decisions following BOJ's decision to hike rates and begin a bond purchasing tapering program, and the Fed keeping rates flat but hinting strongly at a rate cut in September. Japan's yen most impacted by the double decision., strengthening to four-month highs against the dollar, and notably lower against other main crosses. Strong post-close earnings on Wall Street propelling US futures higher for now, providing an additional tailwind.

    • The region's bond markets also reacting to the pivotal central bank moves. Australia's 10Y yield fell to four-month lows, South Korea's also sank but CGBs are slightly higher following pledges from Beijing that it would support bond markets. In macro news, China's Caixin PMIs fell unexpectedly, giving warning to the country's export base. Australia exports rose 1.7% to a four-month high while imports grew marginally.

  • Digest:

    • Yen adds to gains on Fed/BOJ follow-through, prompting reevaluation of carry trades:

      • USD/JPY breached the 148 level for the first time since mid-March. Follow-through momentum during Tokyo hours was attributed to increased confidence in a September Fed rate cut following the FOMC meeting overnight (Nikkei). Combined with Wednesday's BOJ rate hike and hawkish takeaways from Governor Ueda's press conference, these catalysts prompted a sea change in US-Japan yield gap expectations. Furthermore, dollar demand among Japanese importers said to have softened. Reuters discussed latest developments in yen carry trades amid recent anecdotes indicating a broad unwinding of positions. Contrasting with other discussions noting skepticism that a small rate hike would have much impact, article stressed carry trades are sensitive to rate directionality and volatility. USD/JPY overnight implied vol jumped to 27% Wednesday to its highest level YTD. Also noted CFTC short yen positions 40% below latest April peak, though remains elevated at $8.61B.

    • Next BOJ rate hike window shaping up to be around year-end:

      • Economist takeaways from the BOJ meeting showed near term rate projections were little changed despite the Wednesday's hike coming earlier than most had expected. Forecasts for the next move gravitating around December or January. Nomura is an outlier calling for April. Pace of hikes was subject to some debate with views split between one or two more increases through 2025. However, forecasts are now assuming 25 bp increments going forward. There were no suggestions that BOJ is specifically eyeing a terminal rate of 0.50%, which would be reached on the next hike, consistent with Governor Ueda's press conference remarks. Yet, Nomura and MUFG Morgan Stanley have only one more rate hike in their main scenario through 2025, acknowledging some risk of an additional increase to 0.75% predicated on upside surprise in inflation. Nomura noted a 0.75% level would approach the vicinity of neutral rate estimates. Deutsche and JPMorgan were among the most hawkish, looking for a policy rate of 1% by 2025-end or 1Q26. In terms of macro checkpoints, Goldman Sachs is looking for confirmation of a rebound in underlying inflation momentum, citing the ex-fresh food & energy series, from the summer onwards after base effects from last year's price hikes fade and further permeation of wage cost passthrough to service prices.

    • China bond yields plumb new lows, fueling debate around whether PBOC will intervene:

      • China's ongoing bond rally continues to drive debate whether PBOC will intervene to slow descent in yields as 10Y rate plumbs record lows. Latest drop in yields came after weakening China economic growth led PBOC to implement series of rate cuts last week while July Politburo meeting reinforced expectations of further easing in H2. Central bank has made preparations to short sell bonds though has been vague about conditions that could prompt intervention. While mainland press has issued repeated warnings about bubble forming in bond market, there are also thoughts PBOC may be less concerned about absolute level of yields than maintaining upward sloping curve (Bloomberg). Rate cuts have exerted downward pressure on yields along the curve though 2/10Y spread recently widened to most since 2020. Economists see limited prospects for a meaningful upswing in rates amid subdued credit demand, deflation risks, unappealing deposit rates, equity market volatility, and household risk aversion.

    • US mulling restrictions on China's access to AI memory chips:

      • Bloomberg sources indicated US considering unilateral restrictions on China's access to HBM chips and relevant manufacturing equipment as soon as next month. Article noted the three HBM market leaders as Micron Technology (MU), SK Hynix (000660.KS) and Samsung Electronics (005930.KS). Enactment would cover HBM2, HBM3 and cutting edged HBM3E chips. Micron would be largely unaffected given it has already halted HBM sales to China after Beijing banned its memory chips from critical infrastructure in 2023. Unclear how US would enforce the rules on South Korean firms, though a possible strategy would be based on FDPR that allows for controls on foreign-made products that include even the smallest amount of American tech. New restrictions likely to be unveiled as soon as late August as part of a broader package that also includes sanctions against more than 120 Chinese firms and fresh limits on various types of chip equipment, with carveouts for key allies including Japan, Netherlands and South Korea. Implies measures would mainly target US companies. Article noted it is unclear whether rules would apply to high-end chips bundled with AI accelerators. US also plans to lower the threshold for defining what qualifies as DRAM.

    • Toyota sells off amid cautious guidance:

      • Toyota (7203.JP) closed down 8.48% Thursday after reporting operating income of JPY1.3084T in Apr-Jun, somewhat below QUICK consensus JPY1.3885T, though was still a record high. Also missed SteetAccount consensus on operating profit, though net earnings and revenue beat. Nikkei noted output suspensions prompted by certification infringements were mitigated by yen weakness, providing FX windfall gains of JPY370B. Also, lower input costs provided another JPY95.0B, supplementing higher payroll spending. Strength in hybrid cars were overshadowed by impacts from recalls and output suspensions. FY guidance was unchanged, well below StreetAccount consensus. Follows a relatively sanguine Nikkei preview that noted Toyota's typically conservative guidance skewed risks to the high side. In latest developments, transport ministry issued a correction order on 31-Jul after uncovering certification irregularities in seven additional models, bring the total to 14. Immediate implications were not discussed, though Reuters reported the transport ministry called for "drastic reforms." Still, Toyota said it was planning to lift earlier suspensions on Corolla Fielder, Corolla Axio and Yaris Cross from September.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +15.7% 6857.JP (Advantest): reports Q1 revenue ¥138.73B vs FactSet ¥119.88B; operating profit ¥31.33B vs FactSet ¥18.92B

      • +14.1% 4506.JP (Sumitomo Pharma): reports Q1 revenue ¥90.68B vs FactSet ¥82.00B, core operating profit (¥902M) vs FactSet (¥1.19B)

      • +5.7% 6501.JP (Hitachi): reports Q1 revenue ¥2.211T vs FactSet ¥1.986T, adjusted operating income ¥197.62B vs FactSet

      • +5.2% 8308.JP (Resona): reports Q1 ordinary income ¥250.91B, +21% vs year-ago ¥207.22B, ordinary profit ¥77.04B, +65% vs year-ago ¥46.82B

      • +2.4% 2308.TT (Delta Electronics): reports Q2 EPS NT$3.82 vs FactSet NT$3.09

      • +0.8% U11.SP (United Overseas Bank Ltd. (Singapore)): reports Q2 core NPAT SG$1.49B vs StreetAccount SG$1.45B

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -12.4% 9901.HK (New Oriental Education & Technology Group): reports Q4 non-GAAP EPADS $0.22 vs FactSet $0.45

      • -10.6% 8015.JP (Toyota Tsusho): reports Q1 net income attributable ¥95.83B vs FactSet ¥97B

      • -9.8% 6503.JP (Mitsubishi Electric): reports Q1 operating income ¥58.60B vs StreetAccount ¥66.51B

      • -7.5% 6752.JP (Panasonic): reports Q1 operating profit ¥83.76B vs StreetAccount ¥91.61B

      • -7.1% 7203.JP (Toyota Motor): reports Q1 operating income ¥1.308T vs StreetAccount ¥1.373T

      • -5% C6L.SP (Singapore Airlines): reports Q1 net profit attributable SG$451.7M vs year-ago SG$734.0M

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • S. Korea

        • July Trade Balance +$3.6B versus consensus +$5B and +$8B in prior month

      • Australia

        • Q2 Export Price Index q/q (5.9%) versus consensus (5.5%) and (2.08%) in prior quarter

        • Q2 Import Price Index q/q +1% versus (1.8%) in prior quarter

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: (975.49) or (2.49%) to 38126.33

      • Hang Seng: (39.64) or (0.23%) to 17304.96

      • Shanghai Composite: (6.36) or (0.22%) to 2932.39

      • Shenzhen Composite: (8.59) or (0.53%) to 1602.19

      • ASX200: 22.40 or +0.28% to 8114.70

      • KOSPI: 6.99 or +0.25% to 2777.68

      • SENSEX: 51.62 or +0.06% to 81792.96

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: (0.51) or (0.34%) to 149.4650

      • $-KRW: (4.23) or (0.31%) to 1365.0500

      • A$-$: (0.00) or (0.31%) to 0.6519

      • $-INR: +0.03 or +0.04% to 83.7375

      • $-CNY: +0.02 or +0.29% to 7.2399

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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